Well Fred, seems Jesse Berst doesn't quite see it the same way you do.. (I hope Sal's "farm" was not that big). I know, I know, you're gonna say Berst is just one of "those columnists" <g>. But, Berst's gotta good track record and a lot of respect in the industry. Let's see what he thinks about Netware, eh? (I **********'d the salient area)
<<<<<<<<<<<<<
Berst Alert
WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 07, 1998
Future of Software
Jesse 'Swami' Berst, Editorial Director
ZDNet AnchorDesk
Whenever I need to know the future, I
enter a trance and channel the spirit of
4000-year-old wise man Swami Berstananda.
This time I wanted to know about the future of software,
so I started by asking why Windows 98 had been
delayed.
"El Nino, you ass!" he said in his
what-kind-of-a-fool-asks-obvious-questions voice.
Not wanting to push my luck while he was in one of his
bad moods, I quickly asked him to forecast the future
of the five most important software categories. Here's
what he said:
Productivity software. This category is in a strange
lull right now, a brief respite between technology
storms. The 32-bit storm (Windows 95) has passed us
over. Two or three years from now, several new storms
will hit -- things like the move to 64-bitness, speech
recognition built into the operating system and the
need to connect to embedded systems (small devices
with dedicated microprocessors). In the meantime, the
development focus is less on features and more on
simplicity. And the marketing focus is on selling,
supporting and updating over the Internet, preferably via
subscription.
Desktop operating systems. There's a 50-50 chance
Windows 98 will be delayed past the end of the year,
either by technical problems or by the DOJ lawsuit. It
could get pushed into 1999, but right now the Swami
thinks September is a good guess. Since Microsoft
has no competition, and since Windows 98 is mostly a
bug fix, it won't really matter -- unless Microsoft delays
too long. In that case, many people may choose
Windows NT instead.
**********************************************************************
Network operating systems. Novell's NetWare will
make a small comeback before heading downhill again.
Sun will continue to succeed with Solaris, but mostly
at the expense of other Unix vendors. Meanwhile, Sun's
real competitor, Windows NT, will continue to move
upstream, gradually and surely eating away at the Unix
market from below. Two years from now, the battle will
be between Solaris and NT.
**********************************************************************
Handheld operating systems. Windows CE will
finally start to make inroads, thanks to innovative new
hardware, the first of which will be introduced at this
month's Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas.
The PalmPilot operating system will also gain a small
following of developers and third-party companies.
Set-top box operating systems. Internet-ready
set-top boxes will continue their slow ramp up.
Microsoft's CE-based WebTV will continue to grow, but
it will take a protracted marketplace battle to establish
a de facto standard. WebTV and similar devices will be
a fairly hot item next holiday season, but it will be
Christmas 1999 before they become a mass market
hit.
The Swami rang off before I could ask if El Nino is
behind some of the other mysterious events in our
industry. If you think you know what's really going on --
or if you have more predictions the rest of us should
know about -- post a TalkBack by hitting the button
below. I'll choose some of the best and display them
right below this story.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
TDNBW (This does not bode well for Eric, John, and Chris and co. --- oh yeah, I forgot about the brain-dead BOD .... Hmmmm, but they don't give a s*it, do they?).
Quad-K: "We TRIED to OUST the BOD, believe me when I tell you WE TRIED our damndest to oust that BOD".
Whatta' ya' think Fred? Think what Jesse's saying isn't what the industry thinks of Novell? Think Novell doesn't have a extremely LARGE
"credibility" problem?
I dunno, but I'll wait for below $6.50 before I even think about it again. Unless by some chance a "miracle" happens.
PS: Ummmm.... I dunno about Netscape either in these days and times Fred. They seem to be falling from grace don't they <g>? And gee ORCL (even though I filled another order today at 21 <smile>) isn't in great favor with the industry either. Novell could pick some better partners to align themselves with, no?
Oh well, you apparantly hear a lot more than me and the rest, being a VAR and all that about the goings on of Big Red, but --- I don't see diddly squat from where I sit at big blue.
Whatever.... |
