SEPT.,1, 1998 "BULL ENDS IN SELLING CRESCENDO"
That was the IBD headline for 9/1/98, and the headlines for USA today were "TECH STOCKS HIT THE HARDEST"....RECESSON NO SURE THING BUT ODDS ARE GROWING" I found these 2 newspapers when I cleaned out my trading room last night. Since my daughters birth and the commute back and forth to hospital for feeding I have had some quality time to reflect on the markets and where we are in the big picture.
I would like to share some of the numbers that we had that 9/1/98, NASD down 140 points or 8.6% to 1499, DOW down 512 points or 6.5% to 7539, and the dollar was trading at a mark of 1.75.
Invividual issues: DELL down 18 points to 100, CSCO down 12 points to 81.7/8, MSFT down 9 to 95, AOL 14.5 to 81, LU down 10 to 71, YHOO down 14 to 69, LYCOS down 8 to 21, and IBM down 10 to 112.
That year the NASD had rallied from 1625 in FEB, to 1931 by the end of April. It corrected to 1715 by 6/98 and then rallied from 6/98-7/17/98. On 7/17/98 the NASD hit 2028.
Just 6 weeks later we were at 1499.
I bring these to news prints up just to show where we were 3 years ago. The excesses in these markets are now at all time highs for the amount of growth we are experiencing. The markets both the Dow and the NASD are by my model at historic levels for current economic climate and will CORRECT and perhaps too quickly for many to sell.
Looking at where we are in the current CTR it now approaching the 3rd month of this CTR, and we are still stuck in the same range. This rally could be the longest we have had since last summer, and will probably end the same as last summers, but I have it rolling over within JUNE!!
I will not print where the chip stocks were in the summer of 98, but what I will say is the SOX will take us lower with the networkers and fiber stocks. A good friend of mine commented on the comparason of the FIBER stocks like JDSU and GLW to the Disk Makers like IOMEGA, and Western digital, and KOMAG. Does anyone remember where they were a few years back?
I am sticking w/ my major plan of shorting the CRAP stocks and although last week was painful I still had a nice gain and picked up some ZERO stocks for the fall!!
I want to thank everyone for their kindness on the birth of my beautiful baby girl!! (Mia fortunatly has her mothers good looks! LOL)
Stay vigilant and you will we rewarded, JNPR was only the beginning and remember watch what comes out of EUROPE, I expect a similar problem come end of summer as we did in December.( Europe is 6 months behind us on the economic calender) |
