For Kerry, a lift, but hurdles still loom
By DICK POLMAN
Philadelphia Inquirer
BOSTON - George W. Bush is in trouble.
This doesn't mean that ultimately he will join his father in the pantheon of one-term presidents; a bullish economy and a muting of tensions in Iraq could sway undecided voters. But there is little doubt that John Kerry has cemented his status as an estimable challenger, by orchestrating a harmonious Democratic convention and delivering an emphatic acceptance speech that boosted his commander-in-chief profile.
One is inclined to ignore political operative James Carville, who declared here the other day that "if Bush wins this race, it will be the greatest political achievement of our lifetime." After all, he's paid to say things like that. On the other hand, he never talked that way - not even close - when he was spinning for Al Gore on the final day of the 2000 convention in Los Angeles.
As another barometer, consider Frank Luntz, the Republican pollster who helped plot Newt Gingrich's conservative congressional takeover. Luntz ran a focus group Thursday night, talking to 20 swing voters in the swing state of Ohio, and was stunned by their remarks. They had just watched Kerry's speech, and loved it - to the point where four Bush-leaning voters announced they were switching to Kerry.
"It was one of the strongest positive reactions I've ever seen in a focus group," said Luntz. "Kerry didn't lose anybody. Most importantly, he was able to convince (the Bush defectors) that he is presidential, that he would be tough yet open-minded. They now see him as a credible commander-in-chief."
Maybe that reaction is just a manifestation of the "bounce" a nominee typically enjoys after a convention. And maybe Bush's staunchest defenders are right to be dismissive. There are plenty of people like Rich Galen, a Republican strategist, who hoisted a beer in a Beantown pub last week and declared that Bush will dash the Democrats' dreams, "and I don't think it's even going to be close."
Still, it's tough to argue with the poll numbers in the 17 most competitive states. Even before Kerry spoke, he was leading in all of the nine close states - including Pennsylvania - that backed Gore four years ago. Yet Bush was looking shaky in six of the close states that voted Republican last time - including Ohio, Florida and Missouri.
Charles Cook, one of the savviest nonpartisan handicappers, now says Kerry has "a better than 50-50 chance of being the next leader of the free world," because, "if the dynamics on Nov. 2 are the same as today, the president will have a hard time winning."
Among other dynamics, he was referring to Iraq - particularly the festering concerns about Bush's arguments for war; the widespread belief that U.S. troops remain at grave risk despite the handover of power; and growing fear that the war has sowed more terrorists and made Americans less safe at home.
Gallup has also posted some noteworthy numbers. Bush's approval rating is at roughly 47 percent and has barely moved for 10 consecutive quarters. Pollsters, citing history, say a president's approval rating at the midpoint of an election year is generally replicated at the polls in November. For Bush, that's a losing number.
But November is a distant calendar date, and a number of factors could affect the momentum of this race, either way. Consider:
_The dog days of August. Bush will outspend Kerry this month, which means GOP dominance in the TV ad wars. When Kerry accepted the nomination, he was also accepting $75 million in public financing for his autumn campaign. That spending ceiling is now in effect. Bush won't be nominated until Sept. 1, which means he can tap his vaunted network of private donors for another four weeks.
Which means that, in terms of GOP advertising, "August is going to be nuclear war," as Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg put it.
He'll get no argument about that from Galen. The Republican strategist said, "The Bush campaign will try to make Kerry respond to attacks, try to make him spend his money early. I suspect the Bush campaign will bring out the long knives." But Kerry will be buttressed by such nonprofit, pro-Democrat groups as the Media Fund and MoveOn.org that have already aided Kerry by running anti-Bush ads in Pennsylvania and other key states.
_The ground game in Iraq. If hostilities wane this autumn, Bush could reap the rewards. Here's Galen's argument: "Bush benefits if Iraq drops off the front page. At this point, you've got to blow up 70 people to get on the front page. A downward spiral of violence is good for us. No news is good news for us."
Democrats concede that although Iraq has gone awry, people aren't necessarily ready to rethink their allegiance to the man who led the nation into battle. Kerry strategist Bob Shrum offered his take on the American psyche: "Imagine living in a country where people are frightened about terrorism, and then they're asked, 'Do you think your president knows what he is doing?' If you say no, that is a tough thing for a lot of people to live with."
_The state of the economy. This is a major front in the spin war. The Bush people are touting the numbers - low inflation, steady if unspectacular job growth - and the Kerry people are calling those numbers irrelevant. They'll campaign on the argument that the mere statistics don't mean anything to working Americans still trying to make ends meet.
Kerry speechwriter Terry Edmonds said, "If you create more jobs that pay less than the jobs that went away, while health-care bills and tuition bills are still going up - there's a disconnect between the numbers and the real experiences that people are having." And Cook sees political merit in that argument: "You get into places like Ohio and Michigan, and you can't tell those people that the economy is turning around."
_The mood among minorities. Hispanics are said to be in play, but the polls show that Bush is nowhere close to achieving his goal of reaping 40 percent of their votes. In fact, polls show that they're more angry about the war than the general population. As for blacks, GOP chairman Ed Gillespie insisted here the other day, "I think the African American vote is very contestable this year." That was probably the most delusional spin uttered all week.
Still, with respect to the minority electorate, what matters most is not how Kerry and Bush divide the pie. It's the size of the pie, and whether the pro-Democratic turnout groups can crank them up for Kerry. They're raising big money for those efforts.
_Another terrorist attack. Beyond dreading the disastrous human toll, Democrats believe such an event would damage Kerry's candidacy. One could argue that another incident on American soil would be proof that Bush has not kept the nation safe. But Greenberg said: "We're not Spain. People in this country would rally to the president, and it would affect us dramatically."
_The October debates. Gore may have lost the 2000 race when he faced off against Bush and presented viewers with different personas - hyper in the first debate, soporific in the second. Kerry is said to be steadier, and perhaps more savvy. If undecided voters tune in, the first hour of the first debate will probably make the most lasting impression.
William Weld, the former governor of Massachusetts who challenged Kerry in the 1996 Senate race, said recently: "He is a grand master at changing the subject. He has the speed of a welterweight. The president, by the end, may feel like he has been shadowboxing. I think it's an uphill battle for the president." (Most likely, Weld was trying to lower the bar for Bush by building up Kerry, but Democrats say he outfought Weld in their series of debates.)
Bottom line, however, is that the race - aside from being a referendum on Bush and his record - is also a reading on Kerry's qualifications to command. And the first big test has been met; in Frank Luntz's focus group, where 14 of the 20 swing voters supported Bush four years ago, only four are still with the President.
"There is now a real issue of credibility in this election, and John Kerry is driving it," Luntz said. "For Bush, the pressure is on."
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