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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group

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To: michael97123 who wrote (196544)	8/11/2006 2:02:23 AM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) of 281500

Hi michael97123; Re: "pressure by US?" I don't think so. What say you? Re: "trying to avoid large military casualties?" I have no doubt that this is the crux of the issue. But military casualties can be reduced by better training and better planning, given what the Israelis have learned in the first 10km north of the border. Re: "wait and see on whether lebanese govt can somehow take charge?" Not a chance. Re: "perhaps a comprehensive deal that includes shaba farms and at least the removal of hizbolla rockets with penalties on those who supply them?" Unfortunately, Israel is not in a position to be demanding concessions from Hezbollah. It doesn't seem to me that the Israelis can negotiate a deal without making it look like they've gotten their butts kicked, unless they invade Lebanon all the way to the Bekaa valley. And that will be quite bloody. I don't think that the current government in Israel can sign up for peace. After what they said in late July, they will look like complete fools to be forced into signing a bad peace now. The decision to invade fully or not has to be splitting the government (and the people) very badly. Both choices are quite bad. -- Carl

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