Newsweek Poll: Dean Rising
Here is the latest poll. I was surprised that Bush's numbers remain the lowest in his presidency. Maybe Bush is not such a shoo-in next year after all.
msnbc.msn.com
Newsweek Poll: Dean Rising
Gore’s endorsement and alarm over Iraq give the Democratic candidate a boost
By Brian Braiker
NewsweekDec. 13 - Former Vice President Al Gore’s endorsement of Howard Dean appears to have hurtled the former Vermont governor into a comfortable lead ahead of the other Democratic contenders for the presidential nomination, according to the latest NEWSWEEK poll.
"I have come to the conclusion that in a field of great candidates, one candidate clearly now stands out," Gore told a $125-a-plate breakfast at the National Black Theater Institute of Action Art in Harlem on Dec. 9. Registered Democrats seem to have agreed: 24 percent of those polled rank Dean as their first choice, a big jump from 16 percent one month ago. Retired Gen. Wesley Clark and Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman are tied for a distant second with a distant 12 percent of Democrats pulling for their nomination (Clark is down from 15 percent while Lieberman is up from 8).
Meanwhile, neither good news on the economy, the passage of a Medicare bill nor his surprise Thanksgiving visit to Baghdad seem to have boosted President George W. Bush’s approval ratings among all registered voters: with 51 percent approving and 42 disapproving, his ratings are the lowest in the NEWSWEEK poll’s history. And less than half (45 percent) of voters say they want Bush to be reelected.
If an election were held today between Dean and Bush, the Vermonter would still likely lose (the president retains a 49 to 42 percent lead among all registered voters in a two-way race). A full 34 percent of all voters give Dean little or no chance of winning in a face-off against Bush.
Dean’s approval ratings may continue to climb, though, considering more than a third (35 percent) of registered Democrats consider Gore’s endorsement significant enough to make them more likely to vote Dean, and a majority (53 percent) of all registered voters think Dean has at least some chance of beating Bush in a hypothetical two-way election against Bush next year.
The other leading Democrats slipped slightly against Bush. If a two-way election were held today between Bush and Lieberman, the senator from Connecticut would garner 42 percent of all respondents votes, as compared to Bush’s 51 percent, which represents a five point jump for Bush over a month ago. Similarly, in a race between Clark and Bush, the retired general would win 43 percent of the votes (compared to 45 percent last month) and Bush would win with 49 percent (up from 48 last month).
On the issues, the narrowing of Bush’s lead over the past couple of months may be due to pessimism over Iraq and the economy. A majority of the voters (54 percent) report that the cost of rebuilding Iraq is making them less inclined to re-elect the president, a statistic that is up from 48 percent as recently as October. Nearly half (44 percent) of all voters say Bush’s handling of the post-war situation in Iraq makes them less likely to vote for him, versus 34 percent who find it makes them more likely to. Exactly half of all voters disapprove of the overall situation in Iraq (versus 45 percent who approve), which is also how wide the spread was in October.
But Dean’s virulent opposition to the war is not necessarily appealing to voters, more of whom say Dean does not represent their views on Iraq (34 percent) than say he does (26 percent). Just 22 percent of them say Dean’s views on Iraq resonate with them. The man most Democrats (27 percent) consider best suited for the role of leader in Iraq is Clark; only 16 percent consider Dean the most qualified Democrat for that role and even fewer (12 percent) Lieberman.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average has been flitting above 10,000 for the first time in more than two years and the economy appears to be growing at an impressive rate. But perhaps exuberance over the improving economy has been tempered by lagging job growth and indications that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates. Thirty-seven percent of all voters think the current state of the economy will still make them less likely to vote for Bush; 30 percent it would make them more likely while almost the exact number (29 percent) doubt it will have any effect on how they vote. The president’s ratings on the economy have actually improved, but remain almost evenly split with 45 percent approving and 46 percent disapproving. Democrats feel Dean is the strongest candidate on the economy, with 23 percent responding he would be do the best out of all them managing the economy and creating jobs. Second to Dean was Lieberman, with just 15 percent feeling that way.
The controversial Medicare overhaul and prescription-drug benefit that passed with Bush’s backing, meanwhile, seems to have had little effect on his ratings. Thirty-six percent of voters say they approve of the way Bush is handling health care, up just 2 percentage points from one month ago. And more voters overall report being less likely to vote for Bush’s reelection because of the bill (36 percent versus 27 percent who say it will make them more likely).
Finally, not even a surprise visit to Baghdad on Thanksgiving did much to boost public opinion significantly in the president’s favor. Bush’s overall job performance ratings are at a low with 51 percent of all voters approving (and 42 percent disapproving), with less than half (45 percent) interested in seeing him re-elected. Interestingly, Bush’s PR stunt failed to gain much traction just as a gaffe Dean made last month seems to have done him little damage. The former governor courted controversy in November by promising to be the candidate for "guys with Confederate flag decals on their pickup trucks," 38 percent of all registered voters maintain a favorable opinion of him and 37 percent of voters think Dean cares about blacks and other minorities (versus 16 percent who disagree). |
