Amelio, Ellison, AAPL.
Judging from Amelio's comments lately, he's got that deer-in-the-headlights look. Amelio is a good manager...however, he has little charisma, and he doesn't stand out as a highly talented, competent CEO. AAPL needs enthusiasm and morale right now to 1) make the most use of its human capital, and 2) strengthen marketing and company perception. These intangibles are more important than most people think. I wouldn't be surprised to see him removed from AAPL in the next 12 months.
Many people have remarked about Ellison's huge ego. Does anyone wonder why it's so huge? Since Ellison doesn't have much of a family and doesn't have a strong faith, I think he mainly affirms his self-worth and identity through personal achievements.
I'm bullish on AAPL stock. Short-term, the company can survive comfortably with high-margin Powerbook sales, desktop sales to niche markets (publishing, multimedia), and even server sales. Longer-term, AAPL needs a lot more direction and credibility.
Philip
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