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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: ild who wrote (19783)10/11/2004 11:52:29 AM
From: re3   of 110194
 
Date: Mon Oct 11 2004 11:00
trotsky (mugwump, 6:30) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
re. Droke's 'XAU in sweet spot' - as far as i'm concerned , the broadening consensus on this point worries me ( for instance, dollar bearishness is now utterly pervasive - and while i think it's the correct long term stance, chances are that these expectations will be foiled in the short term ) .
a detached look at the XAU daily chart says it has just turned down at well-worn resistance - it reached the resistance point exactly. at the same time, the public has thrown a lot of money into the Rydex pm fund, still below the peak values earlier this year, but only just.
now , if the XAU only pauses for a day or two, and then blasts through the resistance, it would be a good time for Droke to publish his article.
but that hasn't happened yet, and the probability of a short term correction is imo higher than that of an acceleration.
nb: it would also be the better thing to happen. overbought conditions need to be relieved. also keep in mind that the speculator net long position at the COMEX is now huge - not per se a 'must go down' sign, but certainly a red flag, and it'd also be better if it came back in somewhat.
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