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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?
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To: George Papadopoulos who wrote (19794)1/24/1998 2:27:00 AM
From: Don Earl  Read Replies (1) of 42771
 
Hi George,

<Novell Daily Update -3/32 at 7 3/32, breaking seven just around the corner??>

It looks pretty bearish. This is the third time it's tested 7 with lower highs on each pass and trend lines all down. There should be strong support at around 6 1/2 short term, and there's usually a run up just before earnings around option expiration.

I doubt they will be able to meet EPS expectations unless they start stuffing the channel again. It wouldn't be the first time, but it would mess up the NetWare 5 release if they have too much old inventory in the channel that has to be returned. If NDS for NT had been released at the beginning of the quarter as planned, without the Microsoft FUD, it might have propped up declining NetWare sales. It didn't happen. There should be some increase in Border Manager revenue, but even so, there was supposed to be a release of just the proxy caching portion that I haven't heard a word about in months. It might have been a hot product that could have been marketed to virtually every commercial web site on the internet. Unless I missed it, I don't think that happened either.

My guess is that it will go into the high 5s/low 6s after earnings and form a bottom in the low 5s during March and April. There should be a sharp increase in price when NetWare 5 is released. Hard saying if it will be the turn around in declining revenue everyone is looking for, but the release by itself should make for some interesting speculation. It seems probable that there would be some insider buying prior to the announcement of a ship date.

Regards,

Don

PS This post contains forward looking statements etc........In other words, all IMO.
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