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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (19848)	10/13/2004 1:49:14 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	of 78699

I would think that the companies with problems behind them (SGP, WYE, and BMY) are much more likely to leave the trading range on the upside than a company (MRK) that still has most of the problem in front of them. The reality is not as black and white though. SGP and BMY may still have issues going forward: mostly pipeline issues, not legal ones. (I don't follow WYE, though maybe I should). Buffett said at some point that he missed huge profits in pharmas since he did not understand them (or something similar). Now maybe is the time to see what Buffett may have alluded to: pharmas depend on government regulation (think price controls), pharmas are high-tech companies (think that new drug invention is not guaranteed), pharmas have significant potential liabilities (Vioxx). These three factors should contribute to being quite conservative while investing in pharmas. (Or not invest at all). Jurgis - disclosure: holding BMY, following quite few pharmas

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