Friday, August 27, 2004
OUR OPINION: The beginning of the trend?
A Los Angeles Times poll out Thursday revealed just why John Kerry and the Democratic National Committee has called on George W. Bush to demand that the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth ads, which raise questions about the Democratic presidential candidate's command during the Vietnam War, be stopped.
The poll shows that Kerry has, for the first time this year in Times polls, slipped behind Bush among registered voters. Registered voters are, of course, the ones most likely to show up on Nov. 2. The poll says Bush now leads, 49 percent to 46 percent, among those voters. That contrasts to a similar poll in July, which had the Kerry/Edwards ticket ahead, 48 percent to 46 percent. That's a five-point swing to Bush, and a Times story accompanying the poll results attributes the swing to the effect the Swift Boat ads are having.
We think that's about right, and we guarantee that the results of the poll are causing much angst in the inner circle of Kerry advisers. That's because Kerry — and his advisers — are more than a little aware that it's the older crowd of voters who will decide who's in the Oval Office come Jan. 20. Older people — 40 and up, say — are much more likely to vote than 20-somethings, and it's a truism that the older one gets, the more conservative one becomes. Change is, for people in their 50s and 60s, a bad thing.
Planting the seed
Now then. The Vietnam generation, including the million or so men and women who rotated through that godforsaken country as members of the military, are now among those who are beginning to eye retirement. They fear higher taxes, even when the Democrats paint their tax proposals as a "make the rich pay their fair share" program. And they're worried about Social Security and health care, not to mention such newly worrisome subjects as terrorism.
Add to this mix the thought that perhaps John Kerry wasn't quite so valiant in Vietnam as he is portrayed to be in David Brinkley's "Tour of Duty" — as the Swift Boat ad claims — and voters begin to doubt, or to contemplate change at the top.
That's what Kerry and friends are worried about; that the seed of doubt planted by the Swiftees will be enough to swing the undecided into the Bush column.
A couple of weeks ago, New York Times columnist William Safire was asked by Tim Russert on NBC's Meet the Press who he thought would win in November. Safire said he didn't know, but that it wouldn't be close.
Safire, surely one of the most respected of all major columnists, said either Bush or Kerry would begin to pull away after the Republican convention, and by November the issue would no longer be in doubt. That's why Democrats are nervous about the Times poll. It could signal the start of the Safire prediction — in Bush's favor.
Steve Williams
vvdailypress.com, |
