Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 274.90

+2.9%

3:14 PM EST

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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (19901)	6/4/1998 2:53:00 PM
From: akidron	of 70976

u know the more I wait the more I believe that the money I made on the run up to 100 last year was a case of "better to be lucky than smart" and I don't want to push it... '95 was caused by falling prices for memory - they're still falling... and before some bright spark tells me that the golden rule of the chip industry is - u get more for less - I'd like to point out that this industry is as structurally unsound as the auto industry was in the 80's... to much capacity and uneconomic pricing born of subsidy and protection... My guess - and that's what i'm betting with my winnings - is that for things to get better... things have to get worse... capacity has got to come out of this market.... somebody has to give up... capital cannot be thrown at profitless production forever... so I'm betting we see greater carnage than '95-'96... whether we see those absolute stock levels is up in the air... I do think that the price will be supported by the attractiveness of their strategic assets to others, at some point.... but not now.... the industry is in denial... like many threaders.... buying the concept of the glorious digital future, without facing up to the reality that to get there, things are going to have to change - the baby's gonna have to learn to stand on its own two feet... and before we get to sanctimonious --- we should remember that the indusrty here has been subsidized by military r&d contracts, since inception.... personally I thnk u've bought intc early... i think the pc biz is now the color tv biz and there will be next to no $$$$ made playing in it... today proves only one thing, that intc hasn't rolled over yet... when it does... I'll be there in cash - I hope --- to participate in the next wave of applications --- but they're a ways out..... What we are looking at is the first skirmishes.... the battle is still to come...

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