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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing
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To: Paul Senior who wrote (19935)10/22/2004 2:06:41 PM
From: Grommit  Read Replies (1) of 78702
 
IIIN. well, it certainly is worth looking at.

I am nervous about it however because of a few things. I am skeptical and maybe overly cautions. Prob the main reason is that the stock price increased so dramatically over the past year, and I did not participate in it. Some devil's advocate questions, and observations:

1. $1.6 million of income in the year was non-recurring.
2. No projections or outlook provided.
3. A lot(?) of the profitability this year was inventory write-ups due to raw material price increases (I think.)
4. Discussions in the conf call were positive but some talk of "volatility" and "price collapse". All risks were discounted.
5. I wonder if it is too good to be true.
6. Outlook talked of capital spending and the non-commodity products, which all sounded good.
7. Did not find any insider selling.

I need to think on this one. Any help would be appreciated. Number 2 really bothers me.

grommit
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