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Politics : Canadian Political Free-for-All

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From: Kitskid10/16/2019 1:47:05 AM
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newsinteractives.cbc.ca
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Updated on Oct 15, 2019 at 3:10 pm ET


Poll Tracker

From CBC poll analyst Éric Grenier, the Poll Tracker aggregates all publicly available polling data.

The Liberals and Conservatives remain neck-and-neck in both national support and in the seat projections, but with the two major parties both below 33 per cent support nationwide a majority government looks unlikely. The New Democrats and the Bloc Québécois have momentum following the debates, while the Greens are holding their support.


Poll averages

CON
32.2%
down -0.2

LIB
31.4%
down -0.4

NDP
17.4%
up +0.7

GRN
9.1%
down -0.3

BQ
6.6%
up +0.1

PPC
2.4%
down -0.1

OTH
0.8%
Data unavailable 0.0


Seat projections

LIB 135
minimum 86 maximum 190


CON 132
minimum 89 maximum 178


NDP 34
minimum 13 maximum 60


BQ 33
minimum 19 maximum 47


GRN 4
minimum 1 maximum 7


PPC 0
minimum 0 maximum 1


OTH 0
minimum 0 maximum 1




Probability of winning

11%Probability of the Liberals winning a majority

40%Probability of the Liberals winning the most seats but not a majority

43%Probability of the Conservatives winning the most seats but not a majority

5%Probability of the Conservatives winning a majority


The regional picture

The Conservatives are ahead in western Canada while the Liberals lead in Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada. Both the Conservatives and Liberals have seen their support drop in Quebec as the Bloc rises. While the New Democrats are still struggling in Quebec, they can hold seats and potentially make some gains in the rest of the country. The Greens are holding double-digits in B.C., as well as in Atlantic Canada. The People's Party has yet to show the concentration of support in any region of the country needed to win a seat, beyond potentially leader Maxime Bernier's.
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