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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

AMZN 226.19

-1.8%

Dec 12 9:30 AM EST

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To: OtherChap who wrote (19936)	10/4/1998 7:32:00 PM
From: Gordon A. Langston	Read Replies (2) of 164684

corrective process is far from over. From a study on the 22 bear markets, the average decline was 35.78% and the median was 35.94%. The average duration was 358 days and the median was 328 days. Incidentally the last two in 87 and 90 were the shortest at 38 and 60 days. So right now we have one leg down at 19.26% from 9337 to 7539. History does not generaally agree that is possible to go from extreme optimism to extreme pessimism in so short a time. Only 1 bear market has been shallower than 19.26% and only the aforementioned 87 and 90 have been shorter than this present drop. So it may be that people's memories and therefore their expectations are very heavily influenced by recent history and not long-term perspective. Also, the effect of program trading and curbs and even the advent of on-line trading may be affecting perceptions in one way or another. And one last statistic is that only 4 bear markets have consisted in 1 leg down. Timing of course is the ? Gordon Langston

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