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To: Jock Hutchinson who wrote (19966)	9/17/1999 1:37:00 PM
From: patrick tang	of 25814

My guess, total guess that is - price will keep expanding because: 1. You will get the supergrowth in CDMA starting calender Q4. 2. PE will expand and head towards 30x by Mar '00. 3. PSII should start shipping by Dec., PSII launches in Mar and scheduled for 1M units sales for the launch. This schedule is totally determined by Toshiba's ability to yield the CPU chip in the fab. 4. By end of Q4/beg. of Q1 '00, you'll start to see the drive-on-a-chip getting shipped. 5. All the above will be evident to us by the cc at end of Oct., but the 'in' analysts will know it around end of Sept when they start making the rounds and visiting 'their' companies. Of course they will not say it as such, since that would be insider information. It will be just because of 'rising semiconductor upturn and continued bookings and visibility' and the average guy on the street will not have a clue why with same 'excuse', they can keep raising the estimates. patrick Cracking into hard d will be a huge win as well as a scary win. To start with, I think everybody knows how much money those hard d guys are making now. The volume may be huge, but the margins may not be. Not ot mention that's territory of TI and such.

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