Hi Peter O'Brien. Well, howsa bouta recap of what's happening? Looks to me like your picks here are doing very well (by my standards anyway -g-). (Note-- long, rambling thoughts follow -g-)
TCB - is close to its high. Congrats. if you still own it!
ATXA - just up a tad from my price (previous post--and I'm still holding); up a goodly % from where you recommended it though. (Congrats. again!) BUT--- the very good news is the extremely bullish article in today's Barron's. Just fabulous potential for its new electronic pad it seems --- and a very undervalued stock as determined by one fund manager, Mark Boyar. After today's Barron's article it will be very interesting to see how the stock trades on Monday.
(Aside: I've read Mark Boyar's recommendations for a couple of decades-- he is very thorough, very analytical (business value to stock price fundamentalist), very sharp, very disciplined (buys and HOLDS), often (IMO) very, very contrarian --- in short-- one heck of a stock picker. I see now he's a fund manager---must pay a lot better than being an analyst -g-. Anyway, I coulda made a lot of money if I had the understanding to buy and the patience to hold his picks. ATXA is a big holding in his fund now. This is a very good sign of confidence that there's good value in ATXA at current price-- again that's all IMO of course.)
I still own Gucci (GUC). I show a small % profit. This is subject to change as the stock seems to have wide swings. Plusses are strong management team (as mentioned by analysts/writers --- I've never personally met any of the management), desirable (possibly) brand name. Negatives-- the Asian contagion is really hurting GUC I'd guess (the Big Issue); and as an up-scale retailer, their stuff can go in/out of fashion which maybe influences whether investors want to own stock in such a business.
Oil Dri. That stock I jokingly said I thought I might buy, but wouldn't -- still has gone nowhere or down. Now it looks close to book value and maybe worth a second look -- although seems still not right price (for a value investment).
Two stocks we (I) missed over past 3-6 months: Tommy Hilfiger. It was selling at its lows --about 35-- and pe about 10-11 (I seem to recall)before earnings announcement. Got scared away when I read SI post that maybe earnings weren't going to be so great; Abercrombie was taking share away because Abercrombie was the college kids' favorite - Tommy being just too ubiquitous. (I like that word! Why write "everywhere" when I don't have to? -g-). Earnings came in good as usual though; and --in hindsight-- TOM stock was too low regardless. Disappointments were already built into the stock price; it may be true about Abercrombie- but TOM's presence is formidable and backed with strong product and good marketing and advertising. TOM stock went on to double in about 5-6 months.
The second -- and there may still be some turnaround value to it --is Nine West (NIN). Primarily mid-price women's shoes. They too, are a company with a presence in every mall it seems. Stocks of shoe retailers and some shoe manufacturers do seem to be rising lately - and NIN has also turned around from its lows. I've looked briefly at the NIN financials and thought about their business model -- very hard for me to step up to it at today's price -- think maybe I'm a little late.
That's it.
Paul Senior |
