Each investor has to make those decisions based on his/her own asset (investment) allocation strategies. My perspective comes from entire Balance Sheet (i.e. all assets, liabilities, estate equity) management for the portfolios (of individual and corporate entities) that I manage and thus a comprehensive view of information affecting the decision process. Conversely, I know nothing about Steve's estate, risk tolerance, convictions, age, family commitments, short-term/long-term needs/objectives, contingencies, etc. Attempting to give investment advice without a comprehensive set of relevant facts would indeed be irresponsible.
In any event, it is extremely difficult to judge timing of market moves. Sometimes, it is riskier being out of the market than in it, and vice versa. If Steve's objectives are to trade based on momentum or similar technical theories (to which I give minimum "weight" or consideration), there very well may be better alternatives. While I might be tempted to take profits or hedge should any investment become overbought/oversold, I seldom anticipate "the quick trade". It's interesting to study very successful, long-term investment techniques from others who I would characterize as mentors. Their initial investment in a "long" position might very well remain stable or even decline until intrinsic values are progressively perceived by the market.
Although I continue to accumulate sizable volumes of OREX, my horizon is long-term and not necessarily in anticipation of short-term moves. As often the case, assumptions and probability theories come into play. Certainly, opportunity costs of an alternative, more successful investment might exceed the "realized" returns from comparable-term returns from one's actual, selected investment. Moreover, the investment decision (in either case) could be bad. (e.g. Warren Buffett's USAir investment vs. say his Wells Fargo investment which, by the way, substantially declined after he bought it; yet, now it's a 5+-bagger for him, much less his KO fortune.)
In summary, I hope this response is taken in the constructive, respectful spirit that I'm attempting to give it. Although my estate management responsibilities is now finite (i.e. fully employed), there are countless resources (self-study, which incidentally I continue to do constantly, and outside professionals) available that Steve or others may want to consider in selcting investment targets and strategies that may very well include the likes of OREX, for better or for worse. Regards-Kent |
