Morning GZ
yes i read that?? not sure about it tho..
my contention is this..we are both trying to read charts<g>, forks, spooons, the moon and the stars...
i see a pullback coming here next week like you do, we are very extended here on everything that i look at..
ok so we ran up like lunatics very hard..the NAZ index was up 19% in 4 days, but GZ it was down 25% that week in Apr, the 14th???, this thing is moving like SDLI or RMBS<VBG>...
now ehre's my contention...let's see the magnatude of this pullback, and where we reverse up from???, thats the move that will signal where we are going..the "reversal point"...
i think we'll hold 1447, or at the very low 1425...i'll wait for the turn to go long..Carpino had a high at 1485, and we spiked thru that by 7 points on the S&P's..we will undoubtable spike below the expected lows...hence my headge at 1425ish...
while we all know about PE's and valuations...it's the FED, GZ that controls this markets next best move...
i believe he will either raise .25, or not at all...we are slowing, they all know it and can see it..and this without the last .75 basis points even taking any effect....
i doubt he wants to plunge us into a reccession...
in 87 the stock market crash was in fact a precursor to a devastating reccession, i was there and lived it...
so was HE..AG that is...ain't gonna happen again..
as for the charts??? heck we did in fact change the trend..we broke all those downtrendlines nicely...
all we can do now is be nimble-neutral-unbiased...
best to you..OJ |
