Well let's see if you guys are strong enough look at some history on this thread. We're gonna see if if takes time for value to play out and we're gonna see if the calls here are any good -- value or not. I gonna tell you who can give good stock ideas and who is the best durn stock-picker on this thread. I'm gonna name names... if you can't take it, jump off now, 'cause I'm gonna look you right in the eyeball and tell you what your performance is.
If you wrote it and I read it, then you own it. It's about the statements THEN, not about you or your opinion NOW. I'm puttin' the names to the stocks, because I can learn something from that, others can too maybe, plus I just like to raise some Hell once in a while -g-. I like a little conflict, so you got my okay to shoot back at me.
Okay,I'm not trying to judge people or ideas in any serious way. After all, Peter Lynch made a lot of his money from his wife and her one recommendation of Hanes (or so the story goes). I'm just trying to review what I've been doing and saying and following and not following, to see if I can improve my perfomance. If anybody could give me a Hanes idea that I used, I'd be thrilled - they don't have to be Buffet, Lynch, or Tweedle Dee.) And my guess is, it may not be possible to evaluate all the ideas and recommendations on the thread in any serious way -- at least not without spending a lot of time and effort.
So, it's gonna be a snapshot. Just going back 6 months. Where were you on or about March 12-April 1, 1997? If you posted here, your record looks about as follows (and I feel just like Hulbert in his rankings of funds/newsletters --g-- - plus I'll take literary liberties too with my interpretations of what was said/suggested/offered/recommended):
Stock prices are then (my best guess from Yahoo charts if not stated in post) vs. now (Fri. close or approx.)
Ramamoorthy: Employee Solutions 5 vs. 5.11/16
Ken Weiss: HIAI (a BB: penny stock. I could not find prices)
Robert J. MLHR 30 vs. 52.3/4 (Strong rec. by Robert J.; I posted back that I thought this office furniture maker was too expensive at 30 with a pe of 22. Today Yahoo shows pe of 33.) Others posted too. (Nice call by Robert J.)
Gottfried Mauersberger: ESV= Ensco 21 vs. 37. Said he owned it and liked it. (Nice move)
Wayne Davidson: ACAR 1 vs. 19/32 (from his list of stocks, he rec'd one reply about this stock)
E. Newman: Value Vision =VVTV 3.5 vs 4.13/16. (VVTV recently mentioned again) (Good percentage move in this penny stock)
Mike Burry: TLC 6.5 vs 13.3/4 (Several posts of discussion inititated by Mike's post) (A double!)
James Clarke: St. Joe Paper (76 vs. 96.5/16) (Florida East Coast asset play, I believe mentioned a couple of times before??)
James Clarke: Mesa Airlines 6 vs. 6 (not actually recommended outright... more like a possibility)
H. Sullivan: MDCD 3.5 vs 5.1/8
Mike(My Opinions Only): also concurring and adding info. on MDCD
James Hopkins: PSInet (6 vs. 8) (confidently recommended by him)
Bruce Russell, Scott Warkwick: Clayton=CMH. 13.5 vs. 18 (Has come up several times on this thread and I keep missing it :>( . Several posts worth of comment in Mar. by Russel and Warkwick ---nice result)
Jeff Maresh: SEHI (10 vs 10.3/4) OH (19 vs. 28.1/4) Alternate suggestions to CMH mentioned by Jeff. (The combo worked out very nicely!)
Mike Burry: Premenos= PRMO (6.1/2 vs 15)
(Applix also mentioned in his post 7.5 vs 8.5.) (Arggghhhh. This thread even calls out PRMO in its description. How can anybody be so blind as to overlook -again and again- this stock when it's at the 5.5 to 6.5 level? Must be easy -g-... I ignored it many,many times ... and thought it was fair valued or better in March at 7.5)
Bob Davis: MTY 3.75 vs 5.75. (I posted I thought is was fair valued or overvalued. In spite of a recent acquistion I still think the same--even though the stock's gone ever higher. In same post I knocked someone else's MDCX at 4.2, and another's FFST at 3 (now 6).
Looks like if you listened to me, I was dangerous to your financial future -g-
Paul Senior: KWP (35 vs 43) (Uh, unhappily for me I bought most at 37-39 and sold most of position recently at 39 after I heard a rumor of bad news about to befall the stock.)
Well, it looks like Mike B. is the unofficial 6 month winner based on a totally unscientific study over an uncontrolled message board by a researcher using totally arbitrary rules and analyses -g-. And since it looks like the author is himself, the worst of the posters, it is likely that this study will not be duplicated or replicated in future by the author -g-.
Actually, I am very surprised that almost all the posts of recommended stocks during the 2 week+ period in March worked out positively (gained). Could be because people with good ideas who were willing to post here actually knew what they were talking about (excepting me of course -g-). Still, I find it uncomfortably strange that so many and varied stocks all seemed to gain. Maybe more likely it was a low point for small-caps, mid-caps before the market rose. Seems so easy in retrospect... just pick what a couple of people here are recommending or what gets talked about... buy a package...and hold on for 6 months.
And as for me and my opinions... I'm humbled but unrepentant. Stocks can go way above fair value, so I can be right to say there's no margin of safety or the value is not there. Of course, since most people want to be rich rather than right... it's more important to predict what the stock price will be in future - and that is a task that requires luck as well as skill.
Good investing all!
Paul
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