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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?
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To: Serendipity who wrote (20072)2/10/1998 6:00:00 PM
From: Don Earl  Read Replies (1) of 42771
 
Hi Serendipity,

It's a little hard to explain exactly but I'll give it a try. It's sort of like when you see a stock change direction (top or bottom) and you know just by looking, even though nothing has really changed. NOVL goes into these funny trading patterns where just about anything you try to do ends up being wrong. The resurfacing of the old rumors. A breakout when there shouldn't have been one. And all of it happening just weeks before earnings that the company has already projected to be flat or lower from last Q. There were two good entry points for a long position in the last few weeks. 6 7/8 and again at 7 1/4. The first position should have been closed the next day at 7 3/8 and the second the first time it touched 8. The next good play will be short and it hasn't happened yet. It's going up but it's in blind luck trading mode. The only thing it's really doing is a kind of sucking motion that would make a short player loose sleep, while setting up the next round of longs. Other than a small investment in a lot of puts that haven't changed in value since I got them, NOVL doesn't look good to me at all right now. I'll let the trading money, funds, nervous shorts and MMs do their work, then see if I can nail it at the top. If the trade doesn't show up, the only thing I've lost is the time I've spent watching for it. We'll see. I don't know if that explains the reason for my opinion but it's about the best I can do. Good luck.

Regards,

Don
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