last bits of detailing
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Taiwan Rising Tensions Come September 2023
SUNDAY, JULY 30, 2023 BY: MARTIN ARMSTRONG
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, First, I want to thank you for creating Socrates. It is the only reliable source for forecasting Taiwan. My question is about the Double Directional Change in 2024. Does this imply that any real confrontation with China will likely come next year?
AK
ANSWER: We also have a Directional Change in the currency in 2024, followed by a Panic Cycle in 2025. However, tensions will start to rise this September. The Republic of China (Taiwan) (ROC) government relocated to Taiwan, followed by 1.2 million people from China. It was October 25th, 1949, when the Battle of Kuningtou on Kinmen occurred, in which the ROC armed forces defeated the CCP on the island's northwestern coast. The ROC then declared Martial law in Taiwan, which continued to be in force until 1987. The tensions have turned up in 2021. When we look at 2025, that will also be the Pi target in the currency on the yearly level that Socrates has had on the screen for quite some time now.
It will be 51.6 years from February 27, 1972 (1972.1315), One China Policy Communiqué that protected Taiwan come September 24, 2023 (2023.7315). To be accurate, it was actually Donald J. Trump on December 2, 2016, 25 days after his election victory against the Queen of Neocons, Hillary Clinton, that he took a congratulatory phone call from Taiwan’s president Tsai Ing-wen who was trying to start indeed to undo the One China Policy to the detriment of Taiwan. This was the first time to anyone’s knowledge, that a U.S. president or president-elect had spoken to his counterpart in Taiwan. What prompted Tsai Ing-wen to upset the balance of power that had left Taiwan free and subservient in formality only? Some have speculated that he was instigated by the American Neocons, who Trump would later fire. Some have questioned whether Trump had violated the One-China policy governing U.S. relations with China and Taiwan on the direction of the Neocons the deep state stuffed into his cabinet.
The United States maintains the American Institute in Taiwan, which is the United States’ de facto embassy in everything but name. What has been carried out for decades is strategic ambiguity which has protected Taiwan so far. Pushing Taiwan's Independence now forces Beijing to respond or look weak. That is the whole problem. The strategic ambiguity allowed Beijing to maintain face and securely chain the dogs of war.
David Stilwell, in August 2020, then-Pentagon spokesperson, and John Kirby who stated in October 2021 that the United States took no position on the sovereignty of Taiwan. State Department spokesperson Ned Price issued a similar statement in September 2022.
It appears that with the 51.6-year ECM cycle due from the One China Policy on Sunday, September 24th, 2023, and a Panic Cycle appearing the week of September 11th followed by rising volatility into the week of the 25th, all warn that we should expect that tensions will begin to increase in September. |
