I've been giving some thought to the immigration issue recently. Unfortunately, this is one area I see most conservatives going off kilter.
We currently have 36M over 65, drawing SS, receiving Medicare coverage, producing most health care costs. With about 300M people, that's 12% of the population. In about 30 years or so, the number over 65 will double.
Now we take in legally about 1M people per year. Our domestic population growth is positive but small. A quick calculation shows the over 65 population will be 21%+ a generation from now. That will be a problem. SS's trust fund will be gone around 2040 give or take a few years. Somewhere between then and now, benefits will have to be slashed. When the SS system stops purchasing Treasury debt securities every year as it does now and begins selling off the supply they've accumulated over decades, I see enormous pressure being put on interest rates.
In short I see we are facing big economic problems in the long run. Big enough to make the US as the major world power a thing of the past. One of the few things we could do about it is dramatically increase our legal immigration, tilted toward the young - future workers.
the outstanding work of people like Robert Rector of the Heritage Foundation, and the clarion calls of Sen. Jeff Sessions, R-Ala., in publicizing his work and other aspects of the problem, we are now seeing that one of the Senate's proposed immigration reform bills could greatly exacerbate the problems. Even if Rector's projections about the inflow of new immigrants over the next 20 years are substantially overstated, there is no question that way too many immigrants will come in during that period.
I heard Rector yesterday on Bennett's radio show, alarmingly saying we'd end up with 100M more people over the next 20 years. Personally I think we need to shoot for that number. |
