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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna
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To: PMG who wrote (2009)7/4/1997 2:38:00 PM
From: mozek   of 94695
 
Unfortunately, I didn't buy last year. When I saw the earnings surprise
followed by an incredible runup, I thought "maybe a good momentum play
into the 70s". Then I thought, "maybe a little more left in the 70s".
Then I thought, "looks like a good short in the 80s". Then I saw the CEO
in an interview and decided to look into the fundamentals. He had the
cahones to "suggest" that analysts consider $4 to $4.25 for FY 98.
After looking into it further, I found that he's delivered to date, and
they're well poised with new production capacity and expansion in
progress. They're mostly owned by insiders with a smaller percentage
by funds. When it was around $81, I sold the Dec 80 puts at about 13
and bought fewer Sept 80 calls at around 12 a few days later.

The only negative I see is the fast runup and potential formation of
a left shoulder. Long term, these guys look great to me.

Mike
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