President Obama’s electoral college edge
President Obama maintains an edge in the race for 270 electoral college votes, according to a state-by-state Fix analysis, even as national polling suggests the race remains tight between the incumbent and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney. Since we last analyzed the national map in July, and despite the fact that Romney has picked his vice president and both parties have held their nominating conventions, there’s been no polling data or spending decisions compelling enough to move any state from its current rating of toss-up, lean Obama or lean Romney.
That means that Obama can count on 196 solid electoral votes and another 41 — in New Mexico, Pennsylvania and Michigan — that lean his way for a total of 237. Romney has 170 solid electoral votes and 36 — Arizona, Missouri and North Carolina — leaning his way for a total of 206.
Among the states, then, that seem unlikely to move either way over the next 55 days, Obama starts with a 31-electoral-vote edge. But it’s in the eight states we rate as toss-ups where the incumbent’s current advantage makes itself clearer.
Relying solely on the Real Clear Politics poll of polls in each state — the most reliable apples-to-apples comparison we know of — there are seven swing states (Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida and New Hampshire) where Obama currently leads and one (Virginia) where Romney holds the lead.
Going by those polls, Obama would take 82 of a possible 95 swing-state votes and win reelection with 319 electoral votes.
Remove states where either candidate leads by a single point or less — that’s Iowa (Obama + 0.2) and Virginia (Romney + 0.8) — and Obama takes 76 of the swing-state electoral votes, giving him 313 — and a second term.
Now, to be clear, where polling in these swing states stands today isn’t a direct indicator of where the race will end up. Obama is the incumbent and, history shows, isn’t likely to win large swaths of voters who haven’t made up their minds yet. (If they’re not for him now, why would they be in six weeks time?)
And, in many of the genuine toss-up states, the Obama campaign thus far has heavily outspent Romney even when spending by conservative outside groups is added into the mix. Once GOP spending begins to assert itself, there’s a reasonable case to be made that many of these close states — Obama is ahead by no more than 3.4 points in any of the Fix’s eight toss up-states, according to RCP — could tilt Romney’s way.
As of today, however, it’s clear that Obama has more paths to 270 electoral votes than Romney. If Obama starts at 237 electoral votes — and that seems to be the case, as there is scant evidence that Michigan, Pennsylvania and New Mexico are regarded as seriously in play — then he could lose all but Florida and New Hampshire among the Fix’s eight swing states and still get to 270.
Win Ohio, Wisconsin (where no Republican has won since 1984) and either Nevada or Iowa, and Obama gets to 271 electoral votes. Obama could lose Virginia, Ohio and Florida and still be re-elected if he carried the other five Fix toss-up states.
We could go through electoral college scenarios all day. (Seriously.) But they almost all add up to the same thing: Obama remains in the driver’s seat when it comes to winning the 270 electoral votes he needs to claim a second term.
The next 55 days are (obviously) critical, as undecided voters begin paying attention (finally), but Obama has built himself a not-insignificant electoral college cushion to ward off any momentum won by Romney. |
