that_crazy_doug,
< I agree AMD will be somewhat protected this quarter, but if p4 is at the same price point next quarter (on par with a 1.2 ghz ddr athlon) then AMD will be in big trouble as the volume ramps up. Now, this is a lot of speculation based on 1 offer by gateway which seems extrodinarily cheap. I don't think they'll be able to maintain this price point, but it will be big trouble if they can.
I belive PIIIs will be more in trouble than Athlons as P4 volume ramps up, and >GHz become the sweet spot. Actually, P4 may increase the demand for Athlons. Also, AMD can afford to cut prices aggressively to move consumer segment sweet spot to > 1GHz, as it ramps its own production.
By the end of Q3'01, AMD could be selling 15Million CPUs at $70 ASp while meeting >24% YOY revenue growth. I believe Intel will be in more trouble as we go forward into the year 2001 due to the PIV transition, and heavy capital expenditure required in faster ramping of PIV.
Regarding the Gateway pricing of P4 1.4GHZ system at the same price as the 1.2GHz Thunderbird system, lets analyze the pricing to see if its sustainable -
Athlon 1.2GHZ system: $1999 - 30% margin = $1400
$1400 - $340 CPU cost = $1060
Assuming Gateway gets 30% margin on the Athlon 1.2GHz system, and based on pricewatch prices of 1.2GHz Athlon (0.7 * lowest prices), one can guesstimate the cost of this product excluding the CPU to be about $1060.
PIV 1.4GHz = $1999 - 20% margin ~ $1600 (note that I used
lower margin here)
The cost difference between the Athlon system minus the CPU, and the PIV 1.2GHZ system with the CPU = $1600 - $1060 = $540.
The $540 difference includes the PIV 1.4GHz CPU, additional cost associated with the DRD memory, additional cost associated with the PIV mother board, assembly etc. $540 look like a lot less to me for all the above stuff, considering the Intel's official price of PIV 1.4GHz.
goutama |
