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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: Lucretius who wrote (20103)4/23/1998 1:56:00 AM
From: Chuzzlewit  Read Replies (1) of 95453
 
LT, I couldn't disagree with you more! The real irrationality is in stocks that command high P/Es and aren't growing, or have limited growth in front of them. Now I'm a very long term holder of IBM (since the 1960's) and I have no intention of selling, but explain to me how this company which isn't growing its top line commands the forward-looking pe it has. When you look at that grouping of companies as a baseline, the solid growth companies like Dell don't appear to be speculative at all -- in fact they look cheap by comparison.

What frightens me is a company that achieves eps growth without growing its top line. Companies that grow through cost savings, and merger "synergies" and accounting gimmicks are the ones to avoid. That is definitely not the portrait of a company like Dell. What also frightens me is a company like KTEL. you put .com after its name and the price quintuples. This is not the portrait of Dell

Your position strike me as inconsistent. A weakening US dollar would ease the huge trade deficits we are currently running and would help US exports. If I shared your beliefs I would probably be 100% in cash. The oil sector will not provide a safe haven in the event of a market crash.

Time will tell.

TTFN,
CTC
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