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Strategies & Market Trends : Ride the Tiger with CD

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To: Veteran98 who wrote (201194)7/20/2011 11:47:38 AM
From: mimur   of 313092
 
Raymond James this morning..............Valuation
We are lowering our rating to Market Perform and decreasing our target to $3.60. Our target is predicated on NAVPS (5%) of $2.65 (from $3.29) and a P/NAV multiple of 1.3x (from 1.6x). Our lower NAVPS reflects our Timmins/Thunder Creek NPV of C$582 mln (from C$856 mln), a reduction of 35% reflecting our lowering of LOM head grade at Timmins to 5.2 g/t (from 7.5 g/t) to reflect LSG's new mine plan (offset by 25% lower mining-only costs). Our lower P/NAV multiple reflects uncertainty about the mine plan, as well as our future funding shortfall estimate of C$53 mln (up from nil previously
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