Linda, thanks for the nice response.
To me, the bottom line on GENZL is:
GENZL said in it's annual report that, each year, around 95,000 people damage the cartilage on the lower end of the thigh bone (Carticel approved area).
I wonder how many of those 95,000 people could be eligible for Carticel?
GENZL needs about 5,000 patients per year, at $10,000 per patient, to pay for it's entire business, which includes their pipeline, at this time, IMHO.
That's only 5,000 out of 95,000 people, or around 5%.
But, getting at those patients has been a problem, up to now. First, GENZL needed insurance companies to cover Carticel. That's coming along very well.
Second, GENZL needed to get at the surgeons that would do the procedure. They are doing that by training more surgeons and by getting representatives to be "in the operating room" to advise surgeons on which "knee accident" patients could be helped by Carticel.
Another factor effecting this earnings report is: The first quarter saw a delay of about 100 days (but improving) from the time the patient is identified, until the Carticel implant is performed. That's important, because it means that the 2nd quarter financial results probably reflects more 1st quarter activity, than 2nd quarter activity.
Most of the significant increase in insurance coverage came during the end of 1997. So, this quarter's results should show effects of the "end of year and beginning of year" surge in insurance coverage.
Therefore, the 3rd quarter should be even better, IMHO.
Uh ohhhhh..... Rambled on a little too much.
Good luck, Bob |
