Waiting for the big Kahuna Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: William H Huebl who wrote (20116)	6/11/1998 10:55:00 PM
From: Nancy	Read Replies (1) of 94695

Bill, not covered in Justin's book. VIX - there was an article in Barron early this year about the abnormal reading on VIX and possible reasons behind it - mainly state that somehow in 1998 VIX is misleading due to unusual prem in both calls & puts. I dont follow VIX so do not keep records of it. Not believe we will ever reach your 4000 target. A pullback to 82-8300 or even severe pullback to 7800 might be possible. the implication of correction more than 15% is too big for this country to bear and there will be subtle intervention to prevent it. dont forget the budget surplus relies on tax revenues and in the past few years individuals have pay more and more taxes than corporations due to capital gains, not to mention that they are talking privatization social security, etc. based on relative value model (comparing bond yield and S&P earnings estimates) SPX at 900 will be fair value based on current bond yield. This market has not been at fair value since 1995.

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