by 2020, cities from emerging economies - such as Mexico City, São Paulo, Buenos Aires, Shanghai, Mumbai, Istanbul and Manila - will either work their way into the top 30 or move up the ranks.
Rome, Milan, Vienna and Berlin are among the European cities whose economic importance is expected to decline, as are American cities including Dallas, San Francisco, Houston and Miami. These economies are all expected to grow, but "they cannot hope to keep pace with the fast-growing economies of the emerging world", says the study.
Cities in emerging nations challenge old order
By Scheherazade Daneshkhu, Economics Correspondent
Published: March 7 2007 02:00 | Last updated: March 7 2007 02:00
Tokyo, New York and Los Angeles are the world's largest cities by economic output but cities in emerging economies are the fastest-growing, according to research to be published today.
PwC, the professional service firm, ranked 151 cities according to their economic output in 2005 and made projections for 2020. It said it believed its research was the first to rank cities according to their gross domestic product and to make projections, by combining United Nations' population data with its own forecasts of per capita income at purchasing power parity.
PwC still expects Tokyo, New York and Los Angeles to remain the top three cities in terms of economic output in 2020. They have economies as big as those of Canada or Spain, while London, in sixth place, has an economy slightly larger than that of Sweden or Switzerland.
But by 2020, cities from emerging economies - such as Mexico City, São Paulo, Buenos Aires, Shanghai, Mumbai, Istanbul and Manila - will either work their way into the top 30 or move up the ranks.
Rome, Milan, Vienna and Berlin are among the European cities whose economic importance is expected to decline, as are American cities including Dallas, San Francisco, Houston and Miami. These economies are all expected to grow, but "they cannot hope to keep pace with the fast-growing economies of the emerging world", says the study.
The survey illustrates the increasing concentration of economic activity in the world's big cities - the top 30 cities in 2005 accounted for 16 per cent of world economic output.
PwC still expects the bottom seven countries in the top 10 to remain in that list by 2020, but it sees London, Mexico City and Philadelphia moving up the rankings and Paris, Chicago and Osaka moving down. Washington is expected to remain in 10th place.
"Within the developed world, it seems likely that the most successful cities of the future will be those that have comparative advantages in intangible business, financial and consumer services that are not so easily emulated by the rising stars of China, India or Brazil," said John Hawksworth, PwC head of macroeconomics.
ELMAT: This bandidos infested cities will put whole countries -like NZ- into their pockets MQ.
Of the projected top 30 fastest-growing cities in 2020, none are from the leading advanced economies. The projections suggest that 10 of the fastest-growing cities in 2005-20 will be from China and eight from India.
It envisages only nine new cities entering the top 100 between 2005-20; three of these are expected to be from India, with China and Brazil each having two new entries. The other two are Ho Chi Min City in Vietnam and Lagos in Nigeria.
The 80 emerging market cities accounted for 27 per cent of economic output of all 151 cities in the full PwC list in 2005. By 2020, the projected share of these same 80 cities will rise to 35 per cent of the total. |
