Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 249.89

+3.1%

Nov 26 3:59 PM EST

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: jtechkid who wrote (20130)	6/11/1998 11:20:00 AM
From: shane forbes	of 70976

(np) jtechkid: XLNX is a semi and a specialized dominant semi at that with a strong product cycle to boot. The semi-equips are the group that I am talking about - I have said all along that the specialized semis (which will largely go unnamed) will come through all right. It is PCs that are the problem and PCs - DRAMs and MPUs are what drives the semi-equips these days. I see no uptick here - (XLNX does very little here) - therefore I see no reason why the semi-equips are not going to go lower. And like I said earlier worst case scenario the stocks have to base at these or lower levels for at least a few months - that basing will be the sign of a low. In the meantime it is all trading I think. The key is that the specialized semis do not spend nearly as much as the DRAM and MPU people on equipment and their recovery (which will be comparatively speaking quite robust) will not do much for the semi-equips over the next 3-4 months. Anyway we will get some indication with the BTB - hopefully it won't go down but I would watch the revenues and bookings separately to get some feel for a sign of recovery in the business. I don't think we are anywhere close to a business recovery at this stage. I do agree that the analysts are like sheep - without a doubt he may have overstated the decline - but I also know that the trend is not good - first they said +16-18% increase, then 2 months later +10%, then 0%, then -5%, then -10%, then -10 to -15% and now -20 to -22% which just totally blows my mind. But we'll find out soon enough. My talks with mgt. at the semi-equips says business sucks. shane.

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next