<<It's possible, though I can't imagine Ray Smith being that pig-headed if he saw the market going the other direction.>>
From Mark L.:
>>If BA/NYNEX/USW go CAP and the rest go DMT, what breaks? How are the CAP telcos disadvantaged?<<
I have to agree with Mark. Pat, it does not make a difference in the world what a telco in California puts in for a point to point ADSL line compared to a (R)ADSL point to point line in Pennsylvania. They both work, and you are not calling another state with a switched service. The line code market will be irrelevant to BA. The only thing that matters is how to deploy to neighborhoods served by older SLC systems. CAP or DMT won't make a whit of difference in that case. This thread spends far too much time debating CAP vs. DMT. It is a waste of time and energy. Both will be deployed.
>I know the xDSL industry can set off bi-polar disorder even in those who don't ordinarily have it, but tell me you didn't write that about a California company having trouble selling boxes outside NA. I have to think it slipped out without your knowledge. Go back and check the press releases for NEC, Sumitomo, and Siemens, if you have any questions about this whatsoever.<
No, its been a long day and I was tired.
>I'm counting on initial deployments in late '97 --- based on what GTE, BCTEL, HKT, MCI and BT have indicated --- and then a steady month by month build-up in 1998, reaching full deployment in '99. I don't know how anyone could proceed any differently. In fact, I don't know why anyone would want anyone to proceed any differently. There's a limit to how many widgets you can make, sell, or install at one time.<
Deploying to maybe one city in late '97 is not my idea of numbers that will impact bottom line revenues to Wall Street. I also have heavy reservations about how much ADSL will actually be deployed in '98. I think deployment delays (not announcements) will be prevalent. This stuff will be more difficult to deploy than telcos lead you to believe. That is why I believe '99 is the year that will be gangbusters for the xDSL industry, with heavy profits for the xDSL stocks, hence stock prices that will go ballistic--in '99. I don't think there is any question some ADSL will be deployed in '98. The concern is will there be enough deployment to really make an impact on a company bottom line. I think we disagree on this point.
Regards,
Mike |
