Mike A. - 1998 deployment
>>On another disturbing note, I increasingly believe that xDSL won't be deployed widely in a telco region until well after 1998 is gone<<
How preceptive.. The Keyword is "Widely". Well of course how could you be wrong with 200 Million lines in the US.
Mark>>Other than GTE and MCI I'm not sure AMTX has any solid prospects in North America.<<
mike>>That actually paints a very disturbing portrait, if true. Selling boxes outside of N.A. requires incredible efforts from a company based in California. I've never believed in revenues from chipsets amounting to anything. Only equipment sales matter.
AMTX has to sell ATU-Rs and/or DSLAMs to make real money.<<
Even if Amati did not get any other Contracts besides GTE & MCI, I would not feel disappointed. (of course I don't view the situation this way) IMO BA will eventually be there, and if the FCC approves the $23 billion BA-Nynex Merger goes through Nynex may well be there too.
GTE will become the Leading National "one stop" provider of local, long distance Wireless and Internet Service provider and will establish an advanced data network that will be fully operational next year. Once completed they will be in a position to reach virtually the entire U.S. population.
>>Selling boxes outside of N.A. requires incredible efforts from a company based in California.<<
With Partners like NEC and Siemens, Sumitomo, TI, I'm not worried at all if thats all they had, but overseas (Amati's initial target '93 '94 '95) there will be many contracts appearing. Of course I'm still very positive on a Partnership with Cisco will emerge, but that is yet to be seen, though it would be an enormous boost.
I believe MCI will be an eventual partner, and here MCI not only has the US to count on, but the BT/MCI Concert Consortim too, 50% of all the worlds Internet traffic will pass through the Concert Network, IMO.
And let us not forget there are still other large Semi manufactures in the world that might be interested in ADSL.
CheeriO see ya next week with a brand new show!
JW@KSC
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