I'm in this mess too. I'm not now interested in the price I bought at a couple years ago. Rather, I am very concerned that I wouldn't sell when SNDK was over 125 last year, and yet recently, when the stock was 17-19, I wouldn't buy any either. This must mean that I don't know what I am doing in SNDK and(or) that I just do not know what fair value to place on the company. Consequently, I decided to cut back my position this past week.
Imo, it's not a value stock at current price, and it's also not a growth stock if it sustains losses due to "pricing pressures and weak demand". It's an interesting 'potential' stock.
Who would buy this stock now at 25-30 I ask myself? Chart readers and point players who like the stock's volatility? Maybe people whose perceptions are anchored at high levels? (As in, it's sold for $50 several times before, business opportunities are there, so a double for the stock - back to 50 - is possible, even likely).
I look at the glass as half-full. As the stock continues to move up - IF it does - I will not be saying, "Yes, I'm vindicated. Eli is great, the company is great, the stock is now going to repeat its great run up and maybe even be greater." I will be saying, "I've seen this stock rise, and I've seen it fall. I've got to take profits now as this thing moves up while I can."
And imo, given my perceptions of general market conditions, there's as good a chance that SNDK can drop back to annual lows in the next few months as there is for the stock to hit 35 or more. Maybe both will occur. -g- And maybe I'll get a chance to build up my position again at lower prices.
bwdik.
Paul Senior |
