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Technology Stocks : 3Com Corporation (COMS)
COMS 0.001300.0%Nov 7 11:47 AM EST
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To: William Wang who wrote (20162)8/4/1998 9:40:00 PM
From: Joe S Pack  Read Replies (1) of 45548
 
I think based on the link you provided some of the things are for diverting their real future problems on to Asia. If you look at the numbers CSCO's total sales in Asia is 11%. Of 11%, Japan accounts for 6% while other countries account for 5%. They are down to 4% and 3% respectively to a total drop of 4%. Even if the worst comes Japan will account for only another 4% drop which is highly unlikely.
If you read the statement carefully CSCO has pricing pressure from startups, small companies and other established players in voice/video equipment. This means CSCO is getting
aggressive competition from companies such as
NT, LU, BAY etc. What they are saying is that their margin will
start coming down. May be even their market share may come down.
The future is not in backbone network. It is the edge that will be
dominating the market share. But whether 3com will be able to dominate
is a different matter and another couple of quarters will give a clear
picture.
3com need to start dominating in Cable modems, Home Area networks and
handheld devices market. They are there with PalmPilot but other two
things areas not clear. Cable modem is more or less reaching a point
of viable technology but it won't be as prevalent as phone lines
in terms of reliable two way service for another 3 to 5 years. Home area network is still in fuzzy state and it may take while longer and
it will be shaped by a serious competition from xDSL modems with Cable
modems.
All the best for the long-term bulls.
-Karun
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