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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)
AMD 210.94+0.1%11:39 AM EST

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To: Rink who wrote (201742)6/12/2006 7:20:37 PM
From: PetzRead Replies (2) of 275872
 
Hypothesis: 1st 65nm transistor in December is embedded SiGe, likely preceded ~September by 90nm SiGe.

REFERENCE: (epscontest site is GREAT!) epscontest.com

Slide 22: Transistor generation 8 (embedded SiGe) has not appeared in any K8's. It is therefore most likely the "next generation transistor in 3 months" referred to in slide 20.

Slide 21: Transistor generation 8 is clearly shown as the FIRST 65nm transistor. Also states "First 65nm transistor = Last (most recent) 90nm transistor."

Note that I slightly paraphrased the original, which stated, "Last 90nm transistor=first 65nm transistor."

The point of the shared transistor technology is not to use an UNTESTED transistor at a new node. CLEARLY THEN, you cannot start 65nm wafers using transistor 8 until you have production output at 90nm from transistor 8.

There is an anomaly in slide 22. Note that on that chart, transistor 7 is shown as the first 65nm transistor, unlike slide 21, which clearly shows that the first 65nm transistor is #8! This is how AMD spells the word S - L - I - P. #7, which is the transistor type in parts you can buy today, apparently wasn't good enough for 65nm or #8 was going to be so much better, that #7 will NEVER be used for 65nm production. 65nm production delay mystery solved, even if AMD never really admitted it!

Q: OK, do if Transistor 8 is not available until September 1 (Slide 20), and it must then be used on 90nm production before being using on 65nm production, how on earth can AMD produce 65nm chips in December?

A: Look back at slide 20. Notice that the line "Next generation transistor in 3 months" is subservient to Seamless Production Transition. The September 1 date is when the validity of tranistor 8 can be verified by 90nm production output and 65nm sample output. 65nm production using transistor 8 can then start.

Note also that it would be unreasonable for AMD to "predict" when a new transistor was ready unless they have already started production (at 90nm plus 65nm pre-production).

Now Doug mentions that there will be further improvements to adapt transistor 9 better to the 65nm geometry. That is transistor #9, only for 65nm, and AMD provided no info on when it may appear.

Petz
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