<Ericsson is in the CopperGold camp.>
Several points. From Robbie Stephens (thanks to Albert Kovalyov) on Supercomm:
"* Ericsson's involvement with ADI/Aware suggests to us that Motorola is losing momentum in developing an ADSL chipset as Ericsson had previously selected the Motorola solution. We note that Amati Communications (AMTX $12 7/8) also appears to be distancing itself from MOT despite early close ties and a licensing agreement."
( techstocks.com )
And even if Ericsson does go with CG, Amati will get some licensing revenues, but will be competing with them for equipment and end-end solutions for the real dollars. (As they will be with ALA, MOT, TI or anyone else who puts forth competitive equipment)
<management has said "profitable in Q1 FY98", that is, the quarter ending October 31, 1997>
If they make several million on the purported Siemens deal, I can see where they may be profitable in that quarter. I question whether we should extrapolate profitability for the year from this statement.
<Pat has reported that Dakin calling for four profitable quarters in FY98 with sequential earnings growth.>
Whoever Dakin is, they were WAY off on last quarter. If they are saying this, I'd take it with a big grain of salt.
We do know that Soundview recently revised their earnings for '98 down from a loss of <.21> to a loss of <.53>.
techstocks.com
And prior to that downward revision, both First Call and Zacks were expecting a '98 loss of <.14>
<Other things to figure in: VDSL deals, other new products and technologies that might come out of the lab, premium for buy-out potential.>
All are possibilities. What kind of dollars do you expect from these other techs? Conservatively and liberally?
Amati buy-out? They currently have the standard, but for how much longer will this 1993 ADSL standard be market salient? Especially as CAP continues it's march on market standard, and with CAP/QAM and backward v.XX compatibility on the horizon.
My wild-shot speculation on ADSL buy-outs? Cisco picks up Aware and Pairgain picks up Netspeed.
<I think at this point (FY98) profitability is less important than top-line growth.>
Definitely. They need sales, and will probably get some. And with the kind of market hype xDSL and Amati can get, this could be a good trading stock over the next months. And then, who knows, it might take off. That's why I'm in some now, and would add if it began piecing together favorably going forward.
Thanks Mark-
Steve
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