>>If by grand you mean industry expectations<<
If by grand you mean industry expectations of into the billions in 4-5 years, yes, I think those are not unreasonable guestimates. I think for THAT level of deployment however, the technology has to be fairly idiot proof (for the telcos) to use. Otherwise, they will be spending more per line in maintainence/trouble-shooting than it is worth.<<
Idiot proof - I believe plug and play is basicly idiot proof, and ADSL is PnP. The supplier will more than likely add a POTS spliter to your home and run a new pair/connection to your modem. This is no harder than installing a second phone line. ADSL is PnP once you have connections on both ends, you slap in a set of modems on each end ADSL does the rest, and connects at the best possible rate. For a qualified answer post to Steve Macica.
According to the Nynex Rep. at th USRX/TeleChoice symposim " Our ISDN installers Love ADSL.
>>Shorter term trials under the watchful eye of trained telecom engineers is one thing.
Mass deployment to every CO is another. The industry is working toward a telco turnkey solution. I'm pretty sure this is do-able - but not sure of the time frame. Truth is NO one will REALLY know how stable ADSL systems will be on a massive deployment over time until it is done. Trials DO give some insight.<<
When people were telling me right here 1-2Q 96 that ADSL was a speculative technology, I had known different since early Jan 96. I was told ADSL works, what will take time is deployment, and what equipment(s) will take it to the Backbone. The trials for the most part are to find out what services to provide, and which technologies and software will be required to handle the data from the DSLAM to the Backbone, not leaving out trying to figure out who has the best end-to-end soultion.
>> How much an end user is willing to pay for this bandwidth, and what they will get for their dollars will be the determining factor.
So until something comes along to make it COMPELLING to buy bandwidth, such that it is profitable for the telcos to mass deploy, I think ADSL may NOT live up to even Dataquests recent DOWNWARD
projections for deployment. Though it also certainly COULD. But IMO it is not a "lay-up".<<
Have you know vision Steve?
How about Broadcast of HDTV(VDSL), VOD, Distance Learning, Teleshopping, Telegames, Telebanking, Telecommuting, Telemedicine, Info-Centers, and the Internet, of course these are just some examples and they will be enriched as the technology is implemented, there will be thousands of catagories added. Only a hand full could see what the future would bring to personal computing back in the days of the 8088,8086, days.
Look at what the GUI, Mulitmedia, CD-ROM's and the Internet Browser did, in just a few years. The implementation of Bandwidth in the loop (ADSL/VDSL) will spur innovation and implementation at a fast pace, once people begin to see the amount of revenue stream that is generated, from those I listed above. Tomorrow's Web will be a lively and a bandwidth-hungry world of streaming video, real-time audio, wide-area video conferencing, Java applications, VRML (Virtual Reality Modeling Language) environments, and things not yet dreamed of, that will make the above look like tinker toys, much like the old video games like Pong, Tank, and Space invaders in comparison to the CD-Rom games of today.
Picture a Circle ( the Internet ) with 13 spokes, now imagine these 13 items one at the end of each spoke.
Telecommunications
Banks
Stock Brokers
Educational Institutions
Utilities
R&D Firms
Manufactures
Individual Customers
Federal Government
Companies & Corperations
State & County Governments
Construction
Retailers
These are a sample of the wide variety of participants who will be attracted to Internet Commerce.
Money makes the world go round, and will be forthcoming to build the New NET once the DSL genie is out of the bottle and everyone gets a whiff.
>>And even I who could easily afford it, wouldn't pay $50/month (let alone charges/minute) just to load web pages faster<<
I'd easily pay $100 a month if I had to. My time is valuable, under the current WEB, when I do research or even reading SI. I spend 3hrs for what it would take me a hour to do without the World Wide Wait being slow.
Not counting recreational time. I consider my time worth $25 hour. Let's just say it only takes 2hrs to do what I could in 1hr , at 3hrs on the PC a day , that's 90 hours a month, half of which is wasted waiting. that's 45hrs times $25 = $1,125.00
Even if I had said my time is worth $5. an hour it still comes out to $225.00! Maybe your time is not as valuable as even my conservative figure, Mine time is ! and I'll pay a reasonable fee not to waste it.
>> I disagree strongly that this is a "given", for the above reasons, as well as the fact that if ADSL really does kick in<< (butting in here)
I believe I've countered your reasons above, but what is this ? In one breath you say :
>> If by grand you mean industry expectations of into the billions in 4-5 years, yes, I think those are not unreasonable guestimates.
Then in the next breath you say >>"If ADSL really kicks in" <<
I really have better things to do than debate opinions that are contradicting within the same post.
I'm not over optimistic, I'm not a dreamer, I see the future, if you can't, perhaps a call to your local power company may help your dim view on the world around you.
They say Love makes the world go round, You can add Bandwidth to that old cliche by the turn of the century, and like love, people will be addicted to it, and won't be able to live without.
People are paying $4. for 30 min/$6 1hr just down the road from me to access the net at T-1 speeds. One guy I talked to drove 50 miles to download software on to his Zip drive and left with 200MB. He said, "why waste your time trying to D/L at 28.8, I needed some software updates, Here I do it in minutes not days, and I don't get knocked off the Net after 5hrs and 7/8 of one of my D/L's is completed, very frustating".
L8ER
JW@KSC |
