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Non-Tech : Amati investors

AMTX 1.600

+3.9%

Nov 21 3:59 PM EST

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To: pat mudge who wrote (20174)	6/22/1997 11:25:00 PM
From: j rector	of 31386

>>>>and come up with approximately $40 million in licensing fees between now and 2000. This is using the minimum 5% per chip figure where with the C6X I've heard as high as 30%. It's also using a conservative 12.5 million xDSL shipments. Let's play a numbers guessing game... If AMTX makes $40 million in licensing between 1998 and 2000 (3 years) and assuming ADSL growth is about 100% on average during those four years (BTW STEVE G--I think your assumptions on growth are seriously low--most anyone who has looked at the market believes that the growth will be in the 100-200% range whenever ADSL 'takes off' 1998? 1999? 2000--who knows.) and assuming R&D expenditures are 25 % of total outlays, AMTX must be expecting to have revenues of at least 160 million during those three years 30 million--1998, 60 million--1999, 120 million--2000 would be about right w/out any earnings at all. Right now AMTX market cap is 230 million--not out of line for next years sales of 40-60 million. Its interesting to play these guessing games but as bill c. has said, nobody really knows.

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