<I believe plug and play is basicly idiot proof, and ADSL is PnP.>
When I said:
"has to be fairly idiot proof (for the telcos) to use. Otherwise, they will be spending more per line in maintainence/trouble-shooting than it is worth. Shorter term trials under the watchful eye of trained telecom engineers is one thing. Mass deployment to every CO is another."
I was refering to the telco end, since these massive deployments of modems with 1-1 or even 1-several connections will need to KEEP working (most telco's DON'T have the experience of an ISP at this - and DEFINITELY not at the CO level. Maybe they will have to BUY ISPs for their technical staff/servicing), so idiot proof modems are ESSENTIAL at the telco end.
<Have you know vision Steve?>
I do Jim, it's just that the WHEN is not clear enough. Will telco customers count on bandwidth PUSHING apps and choose to pay to "create the push"? For all but the most savvy and aggressive of users (and perhaps including them) probably not. So the chicken/egg of bandwidth/killerapp may be awhile in evolving to BIG deployment numbers, IMO.
And I don't know WHO will be the winners by then... the landscape and power-dynamics will likely shift tremendously.
Regarding my time, at 28.8, there is not much of a wait for a web page. And 53K will be a big step forward for about $200 for several years. MY biggest problems are ping times and broken connections - ie., backbone problems. And this will likely get worse before it gets better. And MOST people on the net won't be downloading big files (ANY files actually). It's just a good ways off, for most folk, IMO.
But I agree it's VERY exciting for us, but we're in the front of the boat with the spyglass. The VAST majority of the rowers are in the back. It's a time thing. IMO, several to many years away.
<I really have better things to do than debate opinions that are
contradicting with in the same post. >
If you read my post more carefully, you will see I am consistent. These number are a reasonable guestimate IF.. (as I go on to qualify).
<They say Love makes the world go round, You can add Bandwidth to
that old cliche by the turn of the century, and like love, people will be addicted to it, and won't be able to live without.>
I agree. I share this vision. I think we just have different expectations on deployment dates, and different levels of certainty regarding exactly WHO will benefit. Mine is just a more cautious "wait and see" approach.
But Love and bandwidth ARE both very groovy things! (Love is just easier to deploy at the current time, and doesn't depend on economies of scale and the telcos to work)
Shagadelically yours, baby, yah-
Steve |
