Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?

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To: bry57 who wrote (20194)	2/19/1998 3:45:00 AM
From: Don Earl	Read Replies (1) of 42771

Hi Bryan, As I recall Schmidt said flat to lower, but I can't seem to find the press release that says so. The hard part is trying to figure out if new products or a good quarter will off set what has been a continuous decline in NetWare sales, or if they will find a way to pad the numbers if it doesn't. It seems to me that NetWare sales would tend to drop off with the pending release of NetWare 5. If you're going to upgrade anyway, may as well wait for the newest release? There were some statements in the 10K that suggest that R&D expenses may be increasing as well. They appear to be cutting back advertising expenses and nobody at Novell seems to have a clue that sales tend to drop when they don't run enough ads. It's also kind of hard to guess what investment income will look like this quarter. From what I understand they have a mutual fund trading program set up. The market has been pretty wild this quarter, I guess we'll get a chance to see how well program trading works. Last I saw Zacks had them at +.02. If they report honest numbers, I think they'll miss. NDS for NT was released late in the quarter and Microsoft FUD probably slowed it's acceptance in the market place. Border Manager sales should be increasing but I don't believe it has yet become a large percentage of revenue. Until I see some insider buying, I'd bet against anything good happening. For that matter if they were expecting to be able to turn the company around someday, there's no reason not to let the stock go into free fall in order to create a better buying opportunity. Personally, I think they'll be looking at losses at least through May. Regards, Don

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