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Technology Stocks : LSI Corporation
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To: MulhollandDrive who wrote (20202)10/15/1999 11:31:00 AM
From: Jock Hutchinson  Read Replies (1) of 25814
 
bp: I've got biocehm lab in ten minutes, so I will be brief.

I truly believe that we are at the beginning of a bear market. Prior to last week, we saw the first skein of six consecutive down Dow weeks for the first time since 1990. The AD line continues to suffer. The market is more obsessed with interest rates than underlying fundamentals. There is a clear move to commodities and commodity type stocks. The market would have tanked last year were it not for the infusion of the Fed, and those reasons for lowering the rates (helping Asia recover and Y2K purchase help for small American business) are no longer valid. I also don't buy the bit about no rate increases in an election year. Jimmy Carter became a whore in my eyes when the Fed threw money at the market just prior to the '80 election. Greenspan won't make that mistake. Moreover, the average American doesn't care about the market as much as he cares about his personal circumstances, which means that even if we go into a recession in '00, the average Aemrican won't realize it until '01. (For a great example of this, please remember '92 when Stogie Boy convinced the American public that we were still in a recession, despite the fact that we had clearly emerged from the post Gulf War recession)

Despite all of this, I believe that the semi market is general and in particular those semis involved in the Internet buildout will outperform the market for the next twelve to eighteen months.
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