Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 252.25

+0.9%

Nov 28 9:30 AM EST

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To: shane forbes who wrote (20205)	6/11/1998 9:36:00 PM
From: jtechkid	of 70976

jacob, i never get close to the top or bottom but i try. morgan stated last quarter that to the saying we are trolling on the bottom and from my semi's sources thats what is happening. we are at the bottom of the u shaped and i strongly believe that october quasrter will be sequentially stronger and the book to bill will be higher than the awful june one. i'm not saying that we will straight higher. one thing i always like semi's is people forget how well capitized this industry. these companies unlike lot of industry's havelarge amount of cash, little debt and healthy book values. my own theory is NOBODY saw the october correction in this group and noone will see the upturn. one positive i see is in a downturn some companies like amat and klac are really grabbing marketshare . the point with these companies are they are not going out of business in the next three years they will trade historical way overvalued. it up to the individual to decide at what point do you want to enter. as i stated when i was short, i was shocked how dumb and aggressive buying in these stocks. people taking amat to 39 was a joke. now i have initiated a position and i know these could go lower but i'm confortable because frankly i'm a professional investor and it is extremely negative in this group. the word is people want to get out because of pre announcements. what i see that happens is once the next two weeks are over institutions feel comfortable that companies will make their or it is already made public and this sector and its oversold conditions will bounce heavily. now, theiriuncertainty out there and investors are selling and will examine later . i think amat anything under 2xsales is a value because we are talking about a dominant leader in a good industry gaining mkt share.also, don't get caught staring at the stock price because people did the same thing at 39. set a price and stick to itbut at some point if you believe these stocks will double from here by 2000 you have to initiate a position.

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