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Biotech / Medical : Millennium Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MLNM)

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To: icanpickem who started this subject	1/13/2004 9:17:15 AM
From: IRWIN JAMES FRANKEL	of 3044

From Yahoo - worth a read: I'm fianlly listening by: boronate 01/12/04 11:45 pm Msg: 48946 of 48951 The Apex trial result will be used to support a supplementary NDA for "second line therapy". This will double the number of current pts in Velcade. Frontline trial will start in late 04/early 05. Re-empahsize the strong frontline data reported at ASH (75% response rate with 12 pts). (My comment: Given the current side effect problem seen with the thal and Dex trial, there is a chance that Velcade could take over) Frontline represents about 50% of pts market (25% each for second and 3rd/later line). In 2004, 35 ongoing trials in MM. The NHL signal is strong. With 47 evaluable pts, seeing a combined 50% response rate (my comment: that is a bit selective, depending on which trial result is picked here). Will start at rituxamib combo trial in 1H of 04. Mantle cell trial will qualify for accelerated approval. Levin did say that over the Steven data, positive signals had been observed in the Velcade single as well as the combo arm. Unless he lies, that is a strong statement. Said by the end of this year, a decision will be made whether to start a pivotal trial. This time frame is not unreasonable becasue this is the time frame needed for data on survival benefit. I am a lot more optimistic after hearing him talk. I've listen to Levin for a number of years now, and I believe he is not trying to hide anything here. So, Velcade label will be extended to second line by using the Apex trial data. This should double the sales of Velcade in 2005. I think the 04 estimate is quite conservative given that there is a good chance that label can be changed in the middle of this year. Mantle cell trial may be used for accelerated approval. For follicular, there will be a combo trial with Rituxan soon, and by 05, a decision will be made for a pivtal pIII trial. 05 will also bring into MM frontline trial. So while 04 may be slightly better than Mlnm's projected sales estimate, 05 will be the year that sales could really take off by doubling with second line and some frontline use and possibly mantle cell lymphoma kicking in. messages.yahoo.com

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