Report: U.S. Intelligence Pessimistic on Iraq Future
Thu Sep 16, 3:23 AM ET
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. intelligence officials prepared a report for President Bush (news - web sites) in late July presenting a gloomy outlook for Iraq (news - web sites), saying that at worst the country might descend into civil war, The New York Times said on Thursday.
Citing government officials, the newspaper said the classified National Intelligence Estimate outlines three possible outcomes for Iraq through the end of 2005. The worst would be developments that could lead to civil war, and the best would be an Iraq with tenuous stability in political, economic and security terms.
The intelligence estimate, the first on Iraq since October 2002, was prepared by the National Intelligence Council and approved by a board under John McLaughlin, acting director of central intelligence. This estimate was initiated by the council under former CIA (news - web sites) chief George Tenet, who stepped down in July. The conclusions were reached before the recent worsening of Iraq's security situation.
"There's a significant amount of pessimism," one government official who read the document, which runs about 50 pages, told the Times.
The officials who reviewed the estimate included critics and supporters of Bush's policies in Iraq. They declined to discuss the estimate's key conclusions, the newspaper said.
The new estimate revisits issues raised by the intelligence council in less formal assessments in January 2003, the newspaper said, citing the officials. One intelligence document from that time warned that building a democracy in Iraq would be a long and difficult prospect that might include internal conflict, the newspaper said, citing a government official.
Bush has in recent months consistently emphasized progress in Iraq while acknowledging difficulties, the newspaper said, and the tone of the new estimate contrasts with recent statements by his administration.
"You know, every step of the way in Iraq there have been pessimists and hand-wringers who said it can't be done," White House spokesman Scott McClellan said at a Wednesday news briefing. "And every step of the way, the Iraqi leadership and the Iraqi people have proven them wrong because they are determined to have a free and peaceful future."
Bush's opponent in his race for re-election, Democratic Sen. John Kerry (news - web sites), on Wednesday criticized the administration's public position on Iraq. In a phone call to radio talk show host Don Imus, Kerry questioned whether it is possible to hold elections there in January. |
