Novell's Q1 report --- They finally sent me the numbers
Product line revenue
Q4 Q1
Net 3 27,952,000 22,236,000
Net 4 128,976,000 125,822,000
The NOS is 58.7% of revenue. Slightly up from 58.3%.
Groupwise & Managewise flat at 35,452,000 some 14.1%.
Education & Service declined
38,935,000 28,975,000
but seemed a little high in Q4 and is only a couple mil under the trailing four quarter average.
Unix Royalites are down.
9,731,000 7,127,000
The real area of interest is Infrastructure Products which includes I would assume both NDS, SAA, and Bordermanager.
27,888,000 32,400,000
Bordermanager was out for the whole Quarter. This is the only area of revenue growth reported and it amounts to 5 million dollars.
Conclusions:
They have stopped channel stuffing so we are looking at honest numbers. The fudge factor being irrelevant at .04 a share. I mean what difference does it make .02 or .04---revenues are FLAT.
They have taken a hit already from Asia.
They are doing better with direct licensing deals.
They are trying to make their existing clients happy and focusing on their needs. This means they are trying to find the right new product using their existing customer base as the test bed.
Schmidt has unified the product line marketing.
Basically they are marking time until Netware 5.0. We have not seen any sudden surprises (Scott LEmon not withstanding) in terms of revenue growth from the non-core products.
Only NDS on NT is an unknown. oops the THUD of FUD.
Given a lack of a hot product they must have considered folding some of these products into their core NOS.
There is no evidence of Novonyx sales yet, Internet leadership, or NDS as a standard.
They do not plan any significant changes in their expense models and there will be no more saving from bodies being sacrificed (only 200 people left in this quarter.)
Personally from what I read it must be a daily struggle at Novell to maintain revenue. They need a partner with more marketing clout. They are fighting a company 200 times bigger than them. What Frankenberg should have been allowed to do several years ago, will be done because there isn't any choice by Schmidt. Unfortunately we have to wait until the Summer since Schmidt's main mission has been and continues to be to put Novell into the mainstream of computing again..
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