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Gold/Mining/Energy : ECGOF: Anyone following this company?
ECX 1.800-6.7%Jan 30 9:30 AM EST
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To: david james who wrote (203)3/25/1997 6:44:00 PM
From: Michael Anthony   of 269
 
David, I read posts like your last one as early as last October. It's been the same story for 6 months now. By the time everyone hears about Eco, their growth will have matured to maybe 30%/year and it STILL won't be worth buying then because it's slowed from 50% growth.
The best earnings increases are behind us. It can't keep growing at this pace. Unfortunately, it's too late to get any momentum because it's growth is slowing. Historically, the highest PE it's had since McGinnis took over was about 11. I don't expect it will ever trade at a higher PE than that simply because it never has. There are many stocks out there that have been around for years and have NEVER traded above a PE of 10. Throw in dilution form acquisitions and there is no real reason to expect this stock to grow more than 10% a year at best.
16 ain't gonna happen until they make enough to still have a PE of 8 at 16 bucks. It's too late for this one. The only folks interested in it are getting fed up with lack of movement. I personally don't expect to see above 8 again for some time due to the convertible debentures from the CHEM deal. I'll wager that we won't touch 8 again before summer, even WITH meeting earnings. We've met them for the last year. Why should this next report be any different? This hokey PR firm is why I sold, and I suspect the same for other sellers. We got the CFO, we met estimates, we're gonna drop the "f".....all the things we said would finally get a decent price. Guess what? If it ain't up now, it's never going to be. It's just another one of those stocks that will never have momentum and will never trade above a historically high PE of 11. Sad, but true. I'd say see you at 16, but their gonna have to come up with about 2.50 in earnings to get there. With all the dilution and debentures and acquisitions, don't count on it anytime soon. JMO
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