SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : Ride the Tiger with CD
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
From: mimur9/21/2011 9:38:36 AM
   of 312813
 

scotia note on copper

Copper Broken? Copper Miners and the Copper Price looks “Awful” but is the Copper Story Broken? We continually watch for signs of inventory increases (LME + SHFE + Comex + SHFE Bonded Warehouse) and we haven’t seen this yet. This morning the SHFE/LME arb is open by at least $0.03/Ib which makes LME imports attractive to China. Watch for upticks in cancelled warrants in LME Asia warehouses (we haven’t seen this yet) to confirm inventory moving into China. We think Bonded Warehouse cathode will move into China if the arb remains attractive – then LME Asia material. USA Premiums moving lower - An article this morning on basemetals.com suggested USA premiums for cathode edged lower to 4.25 to 5.5 cents from 4.5 to 5.75 cents – not surprising to see this premium edge lower in the USA given all the negative headlines we have seen in the USA – it affects the buying decision of the incremental spot buyer (i.e. they delay purchases in an uncertain market). Asia premiums are still strong – Pan Pacific has just set its 2012 copper premium with its Asian customers at $100/tonne above LME cash prices (the same as 2011). What about Supply? FCX this morning announcing the Grasberg strike means 3M Ibs per day of lost copper production. Scotia Mining Sales thinks the copper market is actually moving into deficit over the next 6 months despite concerns to the contrary. We doubt copper prices can move materially lower in a deficit market.
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News