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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?

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To: Emmo who wrote (20593)3/3/1998 8:41:00 PM
From: Joe Antol   of 42771
 
Here Emmo. Maybe you don't want to skip this one. It's not negative...

BTW Emmo, "Why are you answering for Fred?" I asked "FRED" if he "Got it!!!!" in my post to him that you "jumped in on".

You wouldn't happen to be Fred Emmo, eh? Why are you answering for Fred? Fred's a big boy (big company and all that stuff that impresses me immensely). He can answer for himself.

Oh well, just thought that was kind of amusing. Emmo saying "I GET IT!!", when I directed that statement to Fred. Then Emmo pops up out of nowhere. Whatever Emmo. I could give a s*it what you think of me.

Anyway, back to the "postive stuff":

(however.....there's stillllllll those litttleeee qualifiers in the article.... always the little qualifiers....).

But a postive article nonetheless. Please don't say I just contribute vitriol. I've been here longer than you.

Oh Yeah, BTW, I've been thinking about what you and Fred have been saying (and Seren too). Like I told Seren. I'm essesntially break-even on this dog. So, what you guys are telling me, is, that I should buy in now at 10 and look for a "double" in 8-9 months, is that a correct reading on my part? Eh? I mean that's what I can logically deduce from the dialog on this board now. Yes?/No? Should I (and the lurkers on this board) take that advice?

Oh, here's the article:
___________________________________________________________________
Is Novell on the comeback trail?
Second consecutive profitable quarter impresses some, but
doubters remain.

By Christine Burns
Network World, 3/2/98

San Jose, Calif. San Jose - Wall Street analysts last week
stopped short of crowning Novell, Inc. CEO Eric Schmidt
the Comeback King. But based on Novell's latest financial
results, his company may be turning the corner.

Novell posted earnings of $14 million and revenue of $252
million for its fiscal first quarter, marking the company's first
operational profit since Schmidt took the reins last April.
Earnings per share weighed in at 4 cents, twice what Wall Street analysts were
anticipating.

"They're only halfway to what I would call a complete turn-around," said
Stephen Dube, an analyst with Wasserstein Perella Securities, of New York,
who raised his stock recommendation from "hold" to "moderate buy" based on
Novell's results. "But these numbers show they've beaten down the first few
obstacles to getting there."

This technically is the company's second consecutive quarter in the black.
However, last quarter's $7 million gain was only a result of income earned
from the $1 billion Novell has in the bank.

Novell's return to profitability is a crucial step for the company as it seeks to
repair its battered image. For the past couple of years, Novell has been
whipped by Microsoft Corp. Microsoft has not only won on the Internet front,
but its Windows NT Server has dethroned NetWare as the best-selling server
operating system.

In a conference call to Wall Street analysts, Schmidt said the company is right
where he expected it would be six months into his 18-to-24-month recovery
plan. ''Novell certainly is relevant again,'' he said.

Schmidt said he expects the company's ramped-up delivery schedule for new
versions of NetWare, BorderManager, ManageWise and GroupWise to fuel
continued success.

Novell attributed its first-quarter profit to harsh cost cutting moves that
included laying off 25% of its work force and significant channel inventory
reductions. These measures held operating expenses for the quarter to $192
million, $45 million lower than expenses in the same quarter last year.

This is how most corporate restructurings start, said Scott Reamer, an analyst
with Boston-based Cowen and Co.

''You need to control the infrastructure, i.e., the costs,'' he said. ''Stabilize them
there and then move on to focus on products and revenue.''

Users who have invested heavily in Novell technology were heartened by the
company's financial performance.

''Nobody wants to see the company who supplies 90% of your network
software waffle. So this is finally encouraging news,'' said Bill Kannberg,
technology manager for the Hillsboro County, Fla., government, which has a
2,000-seat NetWare 4.X network.

Despite the positive profit picture, financial trackers were alarmed by Novell's
33% drop in revenue from last year's first quarter to this year's. At this rate,
Novell will barely be able to maintain its $1 billion annual revenue.

Mary McAffrey, an analyst at Bankers Trust/Alex Brown, in New York, expected better revenue
numbers given that Novell shipped a number of new products last quarter. NDS for NT,
BorderManager FastCache and the Netscape Servers for NetWare all hit the street in the past three
months.

Giga Information Group, a technology consulting firm in Santa Clara, Calif., estimated that these
products will only pull down $50 million each this year.

''They are going to have to bank on something much bigger if they are going to get even close to the
revenue numbers they've enjoyed in the past,'' said Todd Chipman, an areas director with Giga
Information Group.

Stewart Nelson, vice president of Novell's products group, said the company is banking on
NetWare 5 - the firm's top engineering priority this year - to help boost revenue.

NetWare 5 is the next release of Novell's flagship product that Schmidt said will open up the
network operating system to Internet standards. This upgrade - which will enter its third beta cycle at
the firm's annual Brainshare user conference later this month - swaps out Novell's proprietary IPX
protocol in favor of standard TCP/IP. The product also will support server-side Java applications.

The company is on track to deliver NetWare 5 by midyear, Nelson said.
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