GartnerGroup's Dataquest Says Worldwide Cable Modem Shipments to Grow 130 Percent in 1998; Dataquest Report Provides Five-Year Outlook for the Industry
December 2, 1998
SAN JOSE, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)
Fueled by strong demand in North America, the worldwide cable
modem market is forecast to grow 130 percent in 1998, with
shipments reaching 492,000 units, up from 214,000 units in 1997,
according to Dataquest Inc., a unit of Gartner Group, Inc.
(NYSE:IT).
The market continues to be driven by the North America region,
where cable modem shipments are projected to account for 79
percent of the worldwide market in 1998.
"In the residential marketplace, the success of high-speed cable
data services will depend on the penetration of PCs in households
as well as the state of network operators' cable hybrid fiber coax
(HFC) infrastructure and how much of it is activated for two-way
communications capability," said Patti Reali, industry analyst in
Dataquest's Remote LAN and Internet Access Worldwide program.
Dataquest's most recent survey indicated that PC penetration will
approach 49 million households in the United States by the end of
1998, and more than 80 percent of these households will have
Internet access, the overwhelming majority of which are analog
dial-up connections.
"This data indicates that broadband cable ISPs and their affiliated
cable network operators have a significant market opportunity to
gain market share from incumbent dial-up ISPs," Ms. Reali said.
Dataquest analysts said the cable modem market will begin to see
improved growth in other regions of the world. European countries
are in the midst of trials and some commercial rollouts, and
network operators have announced aggressive deployment plans.
The Asia/Pacific and Lain America regions are forecast to see
increasing demand in the stronger economies where aggressive
pricing against incumbent service providers is expected to win
converts.
In 2002, worldwide cable modem shipments are projected to
surpass 2.4 million units, with the North America region accounting
for 50 percent of the shipments.
"The market for cable modems and high-speed cable Internet
access stalled slightly in mid-1998, as cable network operators
waited for the finalization of the Data Over Cable Service Interface
Specification (DOCSIS) standard, and the shipment of
standards-based headend and cable modem gear," Ms. Reali said.
"Final certification of interoperability of vendor equipment was not
expected until late December 1998, and early January 1999, and
volume shipments of standard cable modems will begin shortly after
that during the first quarter of 1999."
Additional information is available in the Dataquest Market
Statistics report "Cable Modem Market Share and Forecast." This
report covers the worldwide cable modem customer-premises
equipment (CPE) market with detailed statistical information and
analysis.
This report is produced by Dataquest's Remote LAN and Internet
Access Worldwide program. Remote access is one of the
fastest-growing and the most dynamic market within the
communications industry, and this program offers in-depth and
timely analysis of the issues that impact this market. More
information on this program is available on Dataquest's Web site at
dataquest.com.
To purchase the report or subscribe to this program, please call
800/419-DATA, or 408/468-8009. More information about
Dataquest's programs, descriptions of recent research reports, and
full text of press releases can be found on the Internet at
dataquest.com.
GartnerGroup's Dataquest is the recognized leader in providing the
high-technology and financial communities with market intelligence
for the semiconductor, computer systems and peripherals,
communications, document management, software, and services
sectors of the global information technology industry.
As the world's leading authority on IT, GartnerGroup provides
clients with a wide range of products and services in the areas of
IT advisory services, measurement, research, decision support,
analysis, and consulting.
Founded in 1979, with headquarters in Stamford, Conn.,
GartnerGroup is at the center of a global community with more
than 11,000 client organizations served by analysts in 80 locations
worldwide. Additional information about the company is available
on the Internet at gartner.com.
CONTACT: Dataquest | Tom McCall, 408/468-8312 |
tom.mccall@gartner.com
[Copyright 1998, Business Wire] |
